#Gate广场五月交易分享

The US-Iran Attack Shatters Peace Illusions Non-Farm Payrolls Clash with Geopolitical Thunderclap Global Markets in a Life-and-Death Game

On May 8th, a gunshot in the Strait of Hormuz instantly drenched the recently warm US-Iran negotiations in cold water. The U.S. Central Command announced intercepting and countering an Iranian attack, causing the optimistic expectations of half a month of negotiations to collapse overnight. Global financial markets collectively staged a terrifying plunge. Previously, the market was still immersed in the celebration of the imminent implementation of a "one-page peace memorandum" and the imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with US stocks continuing to rise, Bitcoin steadily above 80k, and oil prices retreating and cooling down. Everyone thought the Middle East conflict was about to end, and capital bulls were marching forward confidently. But Iran’s tough military counterattack directly tore apart the diplomatic illusion, the dawn of peace quickly dimmed, and geopolitical risks surged back. US stocks rapidly fell below high levels, Bitcoin sharply broke below the $80k key support, and oil experienced an extreme V-shaped reversal, plunging the day before and then soaring in an instant. Global funds frantically fled to safe havens.

This conflict has never been a simple military friction but the ultimate showdown over Iran’s nuclear red line, strait dominance, and regional power struggles. The US, on one hand, uses negotiations to sway public opinion and stabilize global energy and financial markets, while continuously tightening military deployments in the Middle East, attempting to use diplomatic pressure to coerce Iran into nuclear concessions; Iran, on the other hand, refuses to compromise on strait sovereignty and nuclear development rights, retaliating with maritime attacks against US blockades, refusing any unequal agreements that deprive it of core rights. Mutual strategic trust between both sides has long been zero. The so-called negotiations are merely buffer games for mutual needs, with Israel secretly obstructing and regional forces stirring trouble, making a temporary agreement susceptible to collapse at any time. The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains high, and global oil supply is always at risk of disruption.

Tonight, the US non-farm payroll data will be released with great significance. It was supposed to be the only lifeline for bulls to reverse the downward trend and regain market initiative, but it was hit by a double blow from geopolitical black swan events. If non-farm payrolls weaken significantly, expectations of Fed rate cuts will rise, and stocks and cryptocurrencies will temporarily recover. However, persistent high oil prices continue to push inflation higher, severely constraining easing space; if non-farm payrolls beat expectations strongly, the Fed’s rate cut will be delayed again, and under high interest rates, US stocks and Bitcoin will struggle to rebound. Coupled with the possibility of US-Iran escalation at any time, the market dares not blindly bottom fish, making it extremely difficult for bulls to recover lost ground.

The US-Iran situation is highly likely to continue a tug-of-war and escalation in the short term. Small-scale maritime confrontations will not stop, and a full-scale war remains unlikely, but localized friction has become the norm. Key signals are emerging densely: US military continues to reinforce troops for escort in the strait, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is on high alert with tough statements, mediating countries are stuck in deadlock, disagreements over nuclear timeline cannot be reconciled, and Israel keeps escalating tensions and interfering with negotiations. Peace talks are long dead, and geopolitical turmoil will influence global asset trends for a long time. Gold and oil will fluctuate violently, and cryptocurrencies and stocks will swing in both directions. In the short term, the market will only oscillate between panic and hope, with no genuine stable trend.