Trump wants to save the economy, but Iran wants to raise oil prices! BTC: Can you notify me before you start negotiations?

This year's most surreal moment in the financial markets has arrived:
Trump is desperately trying to push down oil prices.
Iran is desperately trying to raise the stakes.
Bitcoin is frantically twitching in the middle.
The "Freedom Plan" was originally a clever political and financial combo punch. The core is one sentence:
"Don't let Americans be unable to afford oil."
Because once oil prices drop, U.S. inflation pressure can be eased, the Federal Reserve's room to cut interest rates opens up, and economic data will look much better.
Initially, the market was indeed buying it.
BTC broke through $80k, tech stocks in the U.S. stock market soared, and the air was filled with a "Risk On" vibe.
But then the Fouchira oil tank exploded, and the entire market instantly entered:
"Oh no, this is bad."
The biggest impact of the surge in crude oil prices isn't just higher fuel costs, but it will also push up global inflation expectations again.
And once inflation rebounds, the Federal Reserve won't dare to cut interest rates.
What does no rate cut mean?
It means the valuation pressure on global risk assets rises again.
That's why BTC has recently been like a roller coaster.
Many believe Bitcoin should be anti-inflation, but the reality is:
"In a high-interest-rate environment, BTC fears liquidity contraction even more."
Now the market is watching Oman.
Oman is almost becoming a global financial center.
Because as soon as there is positive news in negotiations, oil prices will turn around, and global risk assets will recover together.
But if Iran continues to be tough, the market might revert to:
"The classic chain: oil rises—dollar strengthens—U.S. Treasury yields rise—risk assets fall."
Personally, I am currently most focused on two indicators:
First, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.
As long as it continues to rise, BTC will find it hard to be comfortable.
Second, whether oil stabilizes above $110.
This is the market sentiment dividing line.
In terms of trading strategy, I now prefer "short-term quick in and out."
The reason is simple:
This is no longer a technical market,
but a news-driven market.
In the past, I looked at candlestick charts,
now I look at the Middle East.
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