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Last night it rained, lying in bed scrolling through the blockchain and I saw those "coincidental transfers": A sends B a transaction, a few minutes later B sends C, same amount, same last digits, looking like a secret code handshake.
Before, I would also imagine conspiracy theories, but after stepping on some pits, I learned to be cautious. First, break it down into paths: Is it the same consolidated wallet moving funds back and forth? Is it an exchange hot wallet relay? Is it crossing a bridge, first landing in an intermediate address then distributing?
Then look at the time intervals, gas habits, whether the same route is repeatedly used, and you can basically explain the "coincidence" as part of the process.
Recently, during that extreme funding rate wave, the group was arguing whether to reverse or keep pumping the bubble. I don’t dare to guess the direction, so I treat these paths as signals of whether the "ground is wet"...
If you understand, you’ll worry less; if not, just pass by. That’s all for now.