Lately, I've been itching to tag addresses and do clustering again... Honestly, it's not about predicting anything, just that kind of compulsive need to piece together a story from scattered clues. When I see a wallet that consistently moves in and out during the same time period, and often along with certain routes, I can't help but want to create a persona for it.

But how much can address profiling be trusted? I'm becoming more cautious now. On-chain behavior seems habitual, but it could also be scripts, smart contract operations, or just someone deliberately acting for show. Especially when funds shift into derivatives and the fee rates are extreme, whether the community is arguing about a reversal or continuing to inflate the bubble, I can only see on-chain data as a thermometer of sentiment: some “smart money” is just better at disguising noise.

Anyway, my current approach is: treat tags as clues, not conclusions; when I see anomalies, ask first, “Is this like fishing/scamming/position splitting?” Don’t rush to mythologize the person. That’s how I start.