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Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates before 2027 have significantly cooled.
Golden Finance reports that on April 29th, the pricing in the Kalshi prediction market indicates that the market currently assigns only about a 50% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before 2027, a significant decline from the 80-90% probability earlier this year. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds a meeting, the market is actually pricing in a “higher interest rate for a longer period” environment, indicating a lack of confidence in recent monetary policy easing.