Recently, I noticed the community has started talking again about the altcoin season 3.0, but strangely, the altcoin index is still quite low, around 31. So even with many positive technical signals, the market hasn't truly entered a comprehensive altcoin-led phase.

Looking at long-term charts, the altcoin market capitalization is forming a quite interesting structure. Analysts have identified two previous altseason phases (2018 and 2021), and are now monitoring a potential pattern for the next phase. Each time altcoins bounce back from the bottom trendline, it is accompanied by capital flows shifting from Bitcoin to higher-beta assets. This is the core mechanism of the altcoin season — not just individual altcoin increases, but broadly outperforming Bitcoin.

A notable detail on the OTHERS/BTC chart (month). The MACD has just crossed upward, and a descending wedge pattern is forming — these are signals we also saw in 2020 before the altseason exploded in 2021. If OTHERS/BTC truly hits bottom, altcoins may soon start outperforming again.

However, the altcoin index remains the reality check. At 31, it still aligns more with a Bitcoin-led mode. For a true altcoin season, we need to see liquidity spread simultaneously across large-cap coins, mid-cap, and speculative investments. Currently, it seems we are still in the phase of isolated wins.

Macro timeframes also suggest 2026 could be the next critical turning point based on historical cycles. But as I often say, time models work best when combined with other confirmation signals, rather than being viewed as standalone indicators. Although the charts look promising, we still need a clear breakout and retest before declaring a new mode truly underway. Until then, the altcoin index will remain an important metric to monitor.