Federal Reserve Rate Decision Analysis

Key Information

April Rate Decision: Market expectations are 100% for no change in interest rates, with no possibility of a rate cut.

June Rate Cut Probability: The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is only 2.6%, with a 97.4% chance of holding rates steady, significantly delaying rate cut expectations.
Impact on the Crypto Market

1. Short-term Impact:
Interest rates remain unchanged, and market expectations are fully priced in, with no direct impact on mainstream coins like BTC/ETH. The current rebound trend remains unaffected.

2. Mid-term Expectations:
Rate cut expectations are pushed back to the second half of the year. The high-interest-rate environment persists, liquidity remains tight, and the market is unlikely to see large-scale capital inflows, limiting upward potential.

3. Trading Strategy:
Focus on range-bound oscillations and short-term swings in the short term. Pay close attention to Powell's speeches after the decision, and be alert to volatility caused by changes in policy statements.
Additional Tips

The market has fully digested the "no rate cut" expectation. Be cautious of emotional swings if rate cut expectations fall short. In trading, prioritize quick in-and-out moves and strictly set stop-losses. $BTC $ETH $SOL