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๐จ STOCKS ARE TRADING ON A KNIFE'S EDGE
S&P 500 at 7,173. Nasdaq at all-time highs... And yet...
Every $10 rise in Brent crude is a direct headwind for every risk asset on earth and it's now over $100.
Oil is up because the Iran ceasefire is collapsing. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Goldman just revised their year-end Brent target up $10.
Bitcoin feels it first. BTC has shown 85% correlation with the Nasdaq during oil spikes in 2026.
BTC is down today. Pinned under $79K while $80K is still the ceiling everyone is peering up at.
The Fed meets this week with a 0% chance of cuts expected.
But the speeches are still important. If Powell sounds hawkish "higher for longer" comes roaring back.
Tech is holding. JPMorgan raised their S&P target to 7,600. AI earnings are real.
But oil is the variable no earnings beat can ignore.
The war premium isn't priced in. It just keeps growing.