Weather Sniper turned $37 into $15,182 by betting on Hong Kong's temperature with a single wager

He will buy YES at any price — from a very low 0.2 cents on the tail end, to nearly settlement at 99.9 cents — as long as the market price lags behind the forecast data.
The forecast shows an 8% chance of 15°C in Hong Kong, with the market price only at 0.2 cents. So he buys.
Result:
$0.002 → hits and becomes $1.00 = +40,511% return
His best performance:
- $37 → $15,182 (Hong Kong 15°C at 0.2 cents, +40,511%)
- $580 → $2,270 (New York 56-57°F at 16.8 cents, +291%)
- $3,675 → $5,337 (London 12°C at 99.9 cents, +45%)
Three trades, three prices. All betting YES, all settled at $1.00.
His Polymarket profile:
Edge multiple = (1 − q) / q
- When q = 0.002 → each winning trade yields 499 times
- When q = 0.168 → each trade yields 4.95 times
- When q = 0.999 → each trade yields 0.001 times, but with a 99% win rate
Cornwall-style advantage at 0.2 cents, Simons-style advantage at 99.9 cents. Most weather traders pick only one.
While HondaCivic masters both.
Total historical profit: $56,504 · Number of predictions: 4,104 · Largest single profit: $15.1K