#美联储加息预期再起 The Deep Game Behind the US-Iran "10-Day Ceasefire" and Market Volatility

The core of the current situation is the U.S. military leveraging the "negotiation window" to complete tactical troop deployments. President Trump has postponed the deadline for striking Iran to April 6, and these 10 days serve both as diplomatic pressure and a critical window for U.S. troop reinforcements in the Middle East. Negotiation sincerity is in doubt, with both sides' bottom lines clashing—Iran demands compensation and a ceasefire, while the U.S. insists that the Strait of Hormuz must be opened first. If the deadlock is not broken before April 6, markets should be alert to a sudden escalation of military action.

Market logic is shifting from "safe-haven trading" to the brutal "stagflation pricing." The Fed's rate cut expectations have nearly disappeared, and the "interest rate hike bets" seen in the SOFR options market are more a hedge driven by panic rather than market consensus. The Fed's rate hike threshold is extremely high, and its policy faces a dilemma of "stagflation": purely supply-driven inflation caused by geopolitical conflicts is unlikely to justify aggressive rate hikes; a more probable approach is to "maintain high interest rates for longer."

Asset allocation should switch to a "defensive + event-driven" mode.

Crude Oil: Keep a close eye on the Strait of Hormuz, as its navigability is the lifeline of prices. If the blockade persists, Brent crude oil prices could surge to the $110-120 range; if tensions ease, oil prices will quickly unwind the geopolitical risk premium.

Gold: Although short-term pressure exists due to rising interest rate expectations, its dual role as a stagflation hedge and safe haven remains solid. A pullback to the $4,300-4,400 per ounce range could be considered for phased defensive positioning.

BTC: Its correlation with U.S. stocks (especially the Nasdaq) has strengthened and is sensitive to liquidity tightening. Before the Fed's rate cut path becomes clear, it is not the preferred safe-haven asset in the current environment; a light position and cautious observation are recommended.

April 6 is a critical juncture. Escalation of conflict will push up oil and gold prices while sharply depressing risk assets. It is advisable to control positions, avoid one-sided bets, and closely monitor geopolitical developments and signals from the Fed's April policy meeting.