GF Strategy: Non-U.S. markets continue the bullish trend during the holiday, which is favorable for A-shares to start the post-holiday trading lightly equipped

Based on the performance of major overseas assets during the Spring Festival period, global macro and policy variables, and industry catalysts, we observe that non-U.S. assets generally continued the bullish trend, with risk assets strengthening. Stock indices in Europe, East Asia, and South America successively hit record highs.

(This is similar to the situation in 2025, where the U.S. dollar was weak and volatile, and liquidity and stock prices in non-U.S. equity markets outperformed the U.S. market.)

On one hand, this indicates that during the holiday period, overseas risk appetite remained high, and some of the black swan risks that worried investors before the holiday were eliminated, which is favorable for the A-shares market to start the post-holiday rally with lighter positions; (Although the Iran issue remains unresolved, global funds are mostly increasing allocations to oil and gas assets as a hedge against black swan risks, rather than fully reducing stock holdings.)

On the other hand, this also means that global liquidity remains very abundant, with funds continuously flowing into economies and stock markets with expected marginal changes. From this perspective, many marginally changing Chinese stocks are also worth looking forward to in attracting global capital.

In summary, we maintain the view from the pre-holiday report "Favorable Timing, Geographical Advantage, Human Harmony: A New Round of Upward Cycle": as a series of factors are sequentially met or the "boots drop," we recommend everyone regain confidence, regroup, and prepare for the first upward cycle of the Year of the Horse.

Risk warnings: geopolitical risks, overseas inflation risks, and low expectations for domestic steady growth policies.

(Source: GF Securities)