Macroeconomic Factors Trigger Massive Pressure in the Cryptocurrency Market

The cryptocurrency market faces significant challenges at the end of January, with waves of macroeconomic uncertainty shaking global investor confidence. This pressure reflects market responses to various interconnected external factors, ranging from trade policies to regional currency stability.

Liquidation Waves and Bitcoin Price Corrections

On January 26, early Asian trading sessions saw a surge in leveraged long position liquidations, with over $550 million in positions forced to close. Bitcoin at that time experienced a sharp correction, dropping to the $86,000 level, reflecting an intense phase of loss realization. Recent data shows BTC currently at $73.59K, down 4.38% in the last 24 hours, indicating ongoing volatility in the market.

Macroeconomic Concerns: Trade Tariffs to Currency Instability

The macroeconomic pressures driving the markets stem from various sources. President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 100% tariff on imports from Canada creates uncertainty in international trade. At the same time, the threat of a US government shutdown on January 30 adds fiscal ambiguity. On another front, potential interventions in the US-Japan currency market to stabilize the yen, which continues to weaken, are also drawing market attention. The "interest rate check" conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on the dollar/yen pair further heightens investor concerns about the ongoing depreciation of the Japanese currency.

Derivative Market Response and Hedging Strategies

In response to this macroeconomic uncertainty, crypto derivative market participants have shifted their strategies to a more defensive posture. The increase in put skew and implied volatility clearly indicate this sentiment shift. Significant capital flows are observed from long-term put positions toward lower strike prices, showing investor anticipation of further price declines.

Ongoing Volatility and Focus on Federal Reserve Decisions

With a macroeconomic calendar filled with key events, including tech earnings reports and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, implied volatility is expected to remain high. Although the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, market participants will closely monitor Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance on future monetary policy directions.

Until various systemic risks—particularly fears of a government shutdown—become clearer, cryptocurrency prices are likely to continue exhibiting short-term volatility. While safe-haven assets like gold and silver continue to strengthen, the complex macroeconomic dynamics require investors to remain vigilant in navigating risks.