February 4 | BTC Price Movement Analysis

Key Points

• Current Price: $76,452.17 (as of February 4, 2026)
• Short-term Outlook: With daily RSI at 27.7 in oversold territory and 4-hour MACD momentum turning positive, there is potential for a short-term rebound or consolidation at the bottom. However, the overall trend remains suppressed by the 20-day moving average ($86,619), indicating a generally weak trend.
• Key Support Levels: $74,456 (Daily Bollinger Band lower band) / $73,112 (Recent low)
• Key Resistance Levels: $77,697 (4-hour Bollinger Band middle band) / $86,619 (20-day moving average)

Technical Analysis

BTC's current price of $76,452.17 is near critical technical levels. The daily RSI at 27.7 indicates deep oversold conditions, which historically often accompany short-term rebounds. The 4-hour MACD histogram has turned positive (97.82), suggesting short-term momentum improvement, but the price remains below all major moving averages ($84,536 for 20 EMA, $86,619 for SMA), indicating the overall bearish trend persists. Bollinger Band analysis shows the price close to the lower band ($74,456); holding this support could trigger a technical rebound.

Market Sentiment and Derivatives

Market sentiment is extremely fearful, with the Fear & Greed Index at just 13 (scale 0-100), often a sign of a potential bottom, implying selling pressure may be waning. In derivatives, funding rates are neutral (0.4242%), with no signs of extreme leverage; 24-hour liquidation volume is $273 million, with a long-to-short ratio of 4.44 (longs dominate liquidations), indicating some long leverage has been cleared, reducing short-term downside pressure. Open interest has recently decreased from $29.8 billion to $23.9 billion, reflecting reduced market activity and possibly entering a consolidation phase.

On-Chain Valuation

On-chain metrics show mixed signals: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) at 1.359, in the fair value zone, suggesting the asset is neither significantly overvalued nor undervalued; NVT (Network Value to Transaction) at 16.5 indicates network value is undervalued, implying long-term investment potential. The realized price at $55,687 serves as a key support reference; current price remains above this level but needs to hold.

Overall Assessment

In the short term, oversold conditions (RSI 27.7) and extreme fear (Index 13) support a potential rebound, with resistance at $77,697 (4-hour Bollinger Band middle). However, the overall trend remains constrained by the $86,619 (20-day moving average); a breakout above this level is needed to confirm a trend reversal. Downside risks include breaking below $74,456 support, which could test the $73,112 low. Investors may look for buying opportunities near support levels but should manage risks carefully, as the macro environment remains weak.

Risk Warning: Market volatility is high. The above analysis is based on current data; actual movements may be influenced by macro events or unexpected news. It is recommended to make decisions based on real-time data.