February 3 | BTC Price Movement Analysis

Key Points

Current Price: $78,977 (as of February 3, 2026)

Short-Term Outlook: Since the daily RSI is approaching oversold territory (30.08), market sentiment is in extreme fear (index 16), and the NVT indicator shows undervaluation, a rebound or consolidation is highly likely in the short term to alleviate previous declines.

Key Support: $76,500 (Daily Bollinger Band lower band and recent low)

Key Resistance: $87,700 (SMA 20 and middle Bollinger Band)

Technical Analysis Details

Price Movement and Key Technical Levels

According to the latest data, BTC is trading at $78,977, at a critical decision point:

| Technical Level | Price Level | Significance | |-------------------|-----------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | Current Price | $78,977 | Near recent trading range lower boundary | | Bollinger Band Lower | $76,500 | Strong support; a break below may accelerate decline | | SMA 20 | $87,739 | Medium-term resistance; a breakout confirms rebound | | Bollinger Band Middle | $87,739 | Coincides with SMA 20, forming an important resistance zone | | SMA 50 | $88,880 | Secondary resistance | | SMA 200 | $103,551 | Long-term trend reference |

Technical Indicator Signal Analysis

RSI Indicators:

• Daily RSI at 30.08, entering oversold territory (<30), historically often accompanied by technical rebounds
• 4-hour RSI at 41.75, indicating short-term momentum recovery
• 1-hour RSI at 58.52, suggesting short-term buying interest

MACD Indicators:

• Daily MACD histogram at -1299.8, still indicating bearish dominance but weakening
• 4-hour MACD turns positive at 382.7, hinting at potential short-term momentum shift
• 1-hour MACD shows positive divergence, supporting a short-term rebound view

Moving Averages Arrangement: Current price is below all major moving averages (SMA20, SMA50, EMA20), indicating a still-bearish medium-term trend, but the significant deviation increases the likelihood of technical correction.

Market Sentiment and Valuation Assessment

Market Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index at 16, in "Extreme Fear" zone. Historically, readings below 20 often mark market bottoms.

On-Chain Valuation Metrics:

• MVRV Ratio: 1.41, in a reasonable valuation zone, indicating the market is not significantly overvalued
• NVT Ratio: 17.1, showing network value relative to transaction volume is undervalued
• Realized Price: $55,788, representing the average cost basis of long-term holders, providing distant support

Short-Term Price Forecast

Baseline Scenario (60% probability): Stabilize near the $76,500 support level, initiate a technical rebound targeting resistance at $87,700. Rebound magnitude approximately 11-12%, duration 3-7 days.

Optimistic Scenario (25% probability): If resistance at $87,700 is broken, further testing of $90,000–$92,000 is possible, contingent on volume and improved market sentiment.

Risk Scenario (15% probability): If the key support at $76,500 is broken, the price could decline to $72,000–$74,000 to seek support.

Trading Recommendations

For Short-Term Traders: Consider light long positions at current levels, with stop-loss below $76,000, targeting $87,000–$87,700.

For Medium to Long-Term Investors: Extreme fear combined with oversold technicals offers a good opportunity for phased accumulation. Employ a dollar-cost averaging strategy on dips.

Risk Warning: Closely monitor the effectiveness of the $76,500 support. If broken, adjust strategies promptly. Also, pay attention to market sentiment shifts and macroeconomic factors.