#比特币价格反弹 Seeing Bitcoin rebound from $80,000 in November to $94,000, many are starting to get restless again. I want to share some insights into the real meaning behind the on-chain data.

The "Profit/Loss Supply Ratio" rebounded from 0.013 to 0.45, which looks like a clear bottoming signal. Historically, whenever this indicator hits a low, it has indeed corresponded to significant bottoms—verified in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022. This time is no exception. But there's an easily overlooked detail: a top-level indicator far below 100 only shows *there's still room to rise*, it doesn't mean this space will be released immediately, nor does it mean there won't be fluctuations.

What I want to remind everyone is that there is an uncertain period between bottom confirmation and sustained upward movement. Short-term holders still have 1.9 million coins in loss. If these trapped chips are sold during the rebound, it will create some selling pressure. True sustained growth often requires time to digest these chips.

So rather than chasing the thrill of the rebound, it's better to do a few things: First, ensure your position size matches your risk tolerance; second, if you have spare funds, deploying gradually is more prudent; third, set a take-profit point after gains—don't wait until the bubble is at its peak to wake up.

In the long run, the appearance of a bottom range is good news. But short-term greed often leads to lessons.