Tariffs and inflation aren't automatically linked—that's a simplistic take that doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

Throughout 2025, there were widespread predictions that import tariffs would reignite inflationary pressures. Yet the data tells a different story. Those forecasts failed to materialize. The actual market outcome diverged sharply from the doom-and-gloom narratives we heard repeatedly.

This disconnect matters for crypto investors. Market cycles are often driven by false assumptions about policy impact. When macro predictions miss the mark this badly, it reshapes how assets behave. Understanding what *actually* happens versus what talking heads predicted becomes crucial for positioning.