#美国就业数据不及预期 How will the Fed's shift in stance affect BTC market movements?

Looking at the market early in the session, BTC appears somewhat weak, having been declining since last night. The rebound is also failing to materialize, and the four-hour candlestick has already broken below the previous support, currently hovering around 95,400 yuan. Let's analyze this wave of market behavior from both macro and technical perspectives.

First, the macro environment. The new Federal Reserve voting member, Anna Paulson, recently stated that "there's no rush to cut interest rates; employment pressures are greater than inflation." This is a cold shower for the crypto world—delaying rate cuts could strengthen the dollar, prompting funds to flow into safe-haven assets. As a high-risk sector, the crypto market will naturally come under pressure. If employment data worsens further and the timetable for rate cuts is pushed back, it would be a nightmare for the crypto space that relies on liquidity. For a short-term rebound, stronger positive news is needed to push prices higher.

Now, looking at the technical side. The four-hour chart has broken through the triangle consolidation zone, and the MACD has formed a death cross above the zero line, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. The 96,000 level has become a key resistance; if it cannot be broken, the market is likely to continue downward to find a bottom. The first support is at 94,500; if broken, the next strong support is around 93,200.

How should retail traders operate? Those holding short positions should continue to hold as long as the four-hour close remains below 96,000, targeting the 94,500 to 93,200 range. For those looking to buy the dip, they can short lightly near 96,000 with a stop-loss above 96,500. If aiming to go long, place orders in batches between 93,500 and 93,200. Remember: do not chase longs above 96,000 if not broken; do not add heavily below 93,200 if not broken.

My personal view is that even if the price rebounds to 98,000 or even 99,000, it should be viewed as a shorting opportunity. Major players are likely shaking out weak hands and accumulating. The real bottom area should still be between 93,500 and 93,200. Until the trend changes, maintain a bearish mindset and wait for a deep retracement for longs. Opportunities are always present; the key is to stay calm.