Bitcoin's Next Big Test: Breaking Through $100,000

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Bitcoin's next big test is breaking through $100,000: Asia Morning Briefing Original Link: Bitcoin held near $95,000 in early Asian trading hours after a volatile rally earlier this week, with traders increasingly converging on one near-term expectation: a test of $100,000, but not a decisive breakout beyond it.

Prediction markets show a 54% probability that bitcoin reaches $100,000 in January, making it the most likely outcome by a wide margin. Odds fall sharply above that level, with just a 22% chance of $105,000 and an 8% chance of $110,000, suggesting traders expect momentum-driven probes rather than sustained upside.

Downside expectations have faded, with the probability of a move to $85,000 dropping to 15%.

Market makers describe the recent rally as largely mechanical. Bitcoin's move above $95,000 was driven by a "violent short squeeze," with call buyers stepping in as volatility spiked and skews shifted more bullish. ETF flows helped underpin the move, with more than $800 million of inflows, the highest level in three months, while improved top-of-book liquidity skewed toward bids across major venues.