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Recently, a viewpoint has caused a stir in the financial circle. Howard Marks, the head of Oak Tree Capital, issued a bold statement: the so-called safe-haven value of gold is essentially a collective psychological game.
This seasoned investor managing hundreds of billions in assets candidly pointed out the fatal flaw of gold. First, gold generates no cash flow whatsoever. When you buy gold, you're just buying gold; it doesn't pay dividends like stocks or interest like bonds. So how is it priced? Entirely based on market sentiment—if everyone is bullish today, it rises; if the collective turns bearish tomorrow, it crashes.
Even more painfully, the so-called "store of value" narrative is fundamentally a self-fulfilling lie. If everyone believes gold is valuable, then it is temporarily valuable. But once that belief wavers... Marks used the metaphor of "The Emperor's New Clothes" to illustrate this phenomenon: everyone pretends to see the emperor's beautiful clothes, but in reality, there is nothing. History has long proven that during crises, gold still plunges.
In comparison, stocks and bonds have tangible cash flows that can be precisely valued, whereas gold is like a castle in the air—its value purely floating on the belief that "people believe in it."
Interestingly, despite the gold price rising another 7% by 2026, with central banks continuing to buy, and the shadow of geopolitical conflicts still lingering... Marks' warning is clear: those frenzies without intrinsic value will eventually fade away. When traditional "safe-haven" assets face a crisis of trust, a new narrative of value storage is emerging.
Institutional funds are rethinking their allocation strategies. US dollar, gold, or cryptocurrencies? Who is truly a reliable long-term store of value? This question is worth deep reflection.