The Federal Reserve is playing the same old tricks again.

Goolsbee just announced that "interest rate cuts are indeed coming this year," and before the market can celebrate, officials collectively step in—Schmidt immediately emphasizes that "interest rates must remain under pressure," Daly says they will "cautiously calibrate," and Powell, although expecting inflation to decline, is particularly confident about maintaining high interest rates. Just as the words are spoken, they are taken back—this move is truly masterful.

It seems that rate cuts are just a story, and the real control still lies in the data. This routine has long been seen in the crypto market—news is released to pump the market first, then retail investors rush in, only for the market to decline quietly and shake out weak hands. After several rounds of this, the biggest winners are always those who had pre-judged the situation early. Now, the Fed has also learned to manage expectations: issuing statements while holding tight to the rate hike stick, training the market to "read the wind and act accordingly."

Even more interesting is that Powell's position has suddenly become more stable. Trump wants to replace him? It doesn't seem that easy. Based on the plummeting odds of bets on his replacement, Powell is likely to serve until 2028. In other words, the "rate cut battle" between the Fed and the White House has just begun, and global markets will be riding a roller coaster all year.

Another signal worth paying attention to—traditional capital is already moving behind the scenes. Reports indicate that BlackRock and Microsoft have invested $12.5 billion into AI. Once confirmed, this will be a nuclear-level collaboration between veteran capital and tech giants. What does this mean? True funding has long been seeking future entry points, not just focusing on short-term fluctuations.

So the question is: will you continue to chase gains and losses based on news, or wait for the trend to become truly clear? Share your thoughts in the comments.