Update on Lighter's position, also a reconfiguration after the initial expectations were not met.

The short position before the market opens is still held, with an unrealized loss of about 3%, and overall risk is manageable.
Polymarket's 2B No has a relatively large unrealized profit, approximately +150%, but the position itself is not large, so the overall PnL is moderate.

The current situation has diverged from the initial fundamental analysis.
The original bet was to complete the airdrop distribution and TGE by the 29th (today).
Based on market and news feedback, the likelihood of Q4 TGE is decreasing.

Initially considered closing part of the contract positions to hedge the risk of holding positions before the market opens,
but then found that Polymarket's rule is that if TGE does not occur by 12.31, it is directly judged as No.

This effectively turns 2B No into a time hedge against "no TGE within the year."

The overall short position will continue to be held, but costs will be reduced by manually adjusting 30% of the position through wave trading.
Will increase the position when there is more certainty about TGE and airdrop news.

Still bearish; the project team now gives me the feeling that they want everything but don't quite understand how to play it.

More trivial updates will be posted in the Channel; for now, I consider the push to be more informational.