Economist warns: Bitcoin faces extreme volatility risk, beware of historical level adjustments

Bitcoin market has recently attracted significant attention, and Russian economic analyst Henrik Zeberg has published a research report that has caused a stir in the industry. According to this analysis, he has expressed serious concerns about the future trend of digital assets, believing that the current market presents significant risk accumulation.

Price Forecast and Risk Warning

The analysis indicates that Bitcoin faces a "rise first, then fall" risk pattern. According to Zeberg, BTC could reach a high of $150,000 within the year, but this increase is not a healthy market performance; rather, it exhibits typical bubble characteristics. More worryingly, the subsequent correction could be extremely severe—potentially exceeding 90% decline, even dropping below $10,000.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $87.26K, leaving room for a rise to the predicted high, but this is precisely the process of risk accumulation.

Macroeconomic Background and Systemic Risks

Zeberg compares the current economic situation to the Great Depression of the 1930s, pointing out that the global financial system is facing similar imbalances. He emphasizes the following risk points:

Intensified Credit Market Pressure: There is obvious overexpansion in the private credit system and shadow banking sector, accumulating substantial potential risks. This structural issue could trigger chain reactions.

Asset Price Bubbles: Stock markets are currently at historically high valuations, and the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional equities has significantly increased, indicating that digital assets have become part of risk assets and can no longer serve as independent safe havens.

Cyclical Risk Criticality: Multiple economic cycle indicators show that the market has entered a high-risk zone, greatly increasing the likelihood of correction.

Key Issues to Watch

This warning from economists reflects a reality: the current market boom may be a false prosperity. Bitcoin's performance, strongly correlated with traditional financial assets, indicates it has lost independence and has become part of the overall financial bubble. This means that once systemic risks are unleashed, digital assets will find it difficult to remain unaffected.

Investors need to recognize that extreme volatility cycles are often accompanied by systemic crises, and all current signs are preparing for such risks.