#比特币流动性 Beware! Signs of a valuation turning point for LIT are emerging; what do the whale short positions imply?

Recently, I analyzed on-chain data and market trends and found that the bullish and bearish battles for LIT are becoming increasingly intense, with several details worth examining.

**What are the big players doing?**
A wallet address (0xdaa…) has deposited $2.6 million in Hyperliquid and immediately opened a 1x leveraged short position worth $1.256 million, with an average entry price around $3.53. The key point is that this whale is adding to the position. The liquidation price is set at $6.98, while the current market price is $3.47—based on this setup, it’s clear they are not optimistic about a rise and are betting on a decline. Such actions by large holders are surely backed by data.

**Market consensus is beginning to waver**
LIT’s current FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of $3.4 billion was quite high before official launch. The Polymarket prediction market is interesting—bets on whether the FDV will stay above $3 billion one day after listing have dropped from 62% to 55%, a 7-point decline. What does this indicate? Funds are voting with their feet, raising doubts about whether this high valuation can be sustained.

**The hidden minefield of airdrops**
Lighter previously transferred 250 million LIT tokens, accounting for a quarter of the total supply. If these tokens are distributed via airdrop, at the current price, each token could be worth roughly $72. If the airdrop occurs as scheduled on the 31st, short-term selling pressure could explode. Whales have already accumulated large short positions, and on-chain signals are very clear.

**My view**
The $3.4 billion valuation is clearly overextended before launch. Once the airdrop occurs, a reversal where “good news turns into bad news” is highly likely—retail arbitrage, institutions taking profits, and liquidity may not be able to absorb the shock. The probability of the price testing below $3 is not low in my opinion.

On the trading side, there’s no need to rush into longs. Wait until after the airdrop to see the turnover data. If whales continue to accumulate short positions, be cautious of liquidity risks. On-chain logic and data are always more valuable than emotions. I will keep an eye on this address and the token distribution progress and will update if there are new findings.