#Gate广场五月交易分享 BTC Depth Structure
Price Action Review: BTC broke above $81k during the Asian session on May 5th, reaching the highest price since the end of January, jumping significantly from last Monday’s close of $79,000, with a weekly increase of +5.3%. The breakout occurred during the Asian trading session, driven by the structural "cheap upside call buying" in the options market.
Specific Movement: Opened at $78,543 → Broke above $81,000 during Asian session → Maintained $80,500-81,000 range during U.S. stock market hours → Closed around $80,900.
Today’s K-line features: A medium-sized bullish candle, with slight resistance above but no signs of volume-driven selling, indicating that selling pressure near $81K is manageable.
Technical Analysis: The 50-day moving average on the 4-hour chart is trending upward, indicating a clear short-term bullish trend. The daily and 4-hour trend directions are aligned (both moving upward).
Key Support Levels: $78,000-79,000 (last week’s low, an important psychological level); $75,000 (a dense support zone before last week).
Key Resistance Levels: $83,000-85,000 (previous technical congestion zone); $90,000 (psychological round number); ultimate target $128,198 (all-time high, October 6, 2025).
RSI: The technical indicator shows around 55-60, neutral leaning bullish, not yet in overbought territory (<70), leaving room for further upside.
MACD: A short-term golden cross has formed, with the histogram shifting from negative to positive, confirming momentum shift.
Bollinger Bands: Bandwidth is opening, with price moving between the middle and upper bands, indicating a healthy upward trend.
Technical Pattern: From the low of $65,000 in early April (initial panic low during the war) to the current $81,000, a complete "V-shaped bottom + stepwise ascent" pattern has formed. This is a typical accumulation pattern before the main upward wave after bottom confirmation.
On-Chain Core Indicators: Key on-chain data: whale addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC) have net increased by 142 addresses over the past 6 months, with a total purchase of about 270k BTC — indicating institutional-level long-term accumulation, not short-term speculation. In April, net inflow into spot ETFs was $2.44 billion, the strongest monthly institutional inflow since October 2025. As of now, the cumulative net inflow into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF since its launch in January 2024 has reached $58.5 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT holds about 812k BTC (around $62 billion), accounting for approximately 62% of the ETF market share.
Exchange BTC Reserves: Currently, total BTC reserves on exchanges are at a near 7-year low — meaning more BTC are flowing out from exchanges into personal wallets or institutional custody, reducing structural selling pressure, with a continuing trend of supply tightening.
Halving Cycle Positioning: The last BTC halving occurred in April 2024, about 25 months ago. BTC’s historical ATH was $128,198 on October 6, 2025, followed by a correction to around $74,000 (about -42%). Currently, it is in the rebound phase after the correction. Based on the historical pattern of three halving cycles, a main upward wave peaks approximately 12-18 months after halving. At 25 months post-halving, this period theoretically transitions from "post-peak secondary dip → recovery → new high." If historical patterns hold, the next major high for BTC could occur in Q3-Q4 of 2026.
⚠️ But note: The crypto market in 2026 will be highly institutionalized (ETF, sovereign funds involved), and the applicability of historical halving cycle patterns is being diluted, so they cannot be mechanically applied.
Price Action Review: BTC broke above $81k during the Asian session on May 5th, reaching the highest price since the end of January, jumping significantly from last Monday’s close of $79,000, with a weekly increase of +5.3%. The breakout occurred during the Asian trading session, driven by the structural "cheap upside call buying" in the options market.
Specific Movement: Opened at $78,543 → Broke above $81,000 during Asian session → Maintained $80,500-81,000 range during U.S. stock market hours → Closed around $80,900.
Today’s K-line features: A medium-sized bullish candle, with slight resistance above but no signs of volume-driven selling, indicating that selling pressure near $81K is manageable.
Technical Analysis: The 50-day moving average on the 4-hour chart is trending upward, indicating a clear short-term bullish trend. The daily and 4-hour trend directions are aligned (both moving upward).
Key Support Levels: $78,000-79,000 (last week’s low, an important psychological level); $75,000 (a dense support zone before last week).
Key Resistance Levels: $83,000-85,000 (previous technical congestion zone); $90,000 (psychological round number); ultimate target $128,198 (all-time high, October 6, 2025).
RSI: The technical indicator shows around 55-60, neutral leaning bullish, not yet in overbought territory (<70), leaving room for further upside.
MACD: A short-term golden cross has formed, with the histogram shifting from negative to positive, confirming momentum shift.
Bollinger Bands: Bandwidth is opening, with price moving between the middle and upper bands, indicating a healthy upward trend.
Technical Pattern: From the low of $65,000 in early April (initial panic low during the war) to the current $81,000, a complete "V-shaped bottom + stepwise ascent" pattern has formed. This is a typical accumulation pattern before the main upward wave after bottom confirmation.
On-Chain Core Indicators: Key on-chain data: whale addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC) have net increased by 142 addresses over the past 6 months, with a total purchase of about 270k BTC — indicating institutional-level long-term accumulation, not short-term speculation. In April, net inflow into spot ETFs was $2.44 billion, the strongest monthly institutional inflow since October 2025. As of now, the cumulative net inflow into the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF since its launch in January 2024 has reached $58.5 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT holds about 812k BTC (around $62 billion), accounting for approximately 62% of the ETF market share.
Exchange BTC Reserves: Currently, total BTC reserves on exchanges are at a near 7-year low — meaning more BTC are flowing out from exchanges into personal wallets or institutional custody, reducing structural selling pressure, with a continuing trend of supply tightening.
Halving Cycle Positioning: The last BTC halving occurred in April 2024, about 25 months ago. BTC’s historical ATH was $128,198 on October 6, 2025, followed by a correction to around $74,000 (about -42%). Currently, it is in the rebound phase after the correction. Based on the historical pattern of three halving cycles, a main upward wave peaks approximately 12-18 months after halving. At 25 months post-halving, this period theoretically transitions from "post-peak secondary dip → recovery → new high." If historical patterns hold, the next major high for BTC could occur in Q3-Q4 of 2026.
⚠️ But note: The crypto market in 2026 will be highly institutionalized (ETF, sovereign funds involved), and the applicability of historical halving cycle patterns is being diluted, so they cannot be mechanically applied.
