CIO Bitwise named four yet unrealized factors influencing the crypto market

The Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, Matt Hougan, named four factors that have yet to materialize in the context of the cryptocurrency market. These are the purchase of bitcoins by governments, the devaluation of the dollar, the reduction of volatility in the first cryptocurrency, and a new wave of initial coin offerings (ICO).

In his note, Hougan noted that experts and traders focused all their attention on well-known pricing factors. This includes, in particular:

The expert believes that the effect of each of these factors is currently underestimated. At the same time, there are others that may also impact the sector and lead to a new rally.

According to Bitwise's forecast, governments, (ETF), and large corporations are the main players shaping the demand for the first cryptocurrency. The last two of these factors have materialized, purchasing 183,126 BTC and 354,744 BTC respectively since the beginning of 2025.

According to Hougan, this has caused the price of Bitcoin to rise by more than 27%. However, the third factor has yet to materialize. The expert calls the assertion that the narrative of creating cryptocurrency reserves for countries has lost its relevance erroneous.

The expert emphasized that Bitcoin is trading near its historical high amid extremely tight Federal Reserve policy (Fed) in the USA. At the same time, Trump advocates for its easing, openly criticizing the regulator's chairman Jerome Powell and appointing his candidate to the Board of Governors — Stephen Miran.

According to Hougan, the latter in his works questions the feasibility of the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, as this creates a significant burden for the United States. Miran advocates for a decrease in its exchange rate relative to other currencies, including through additional issuance.

The reduction of rates and the fall of the dollar's exchange rate will only support the already ascending price trend of Bitcoin, noted the expert.

Hogan pointed out that since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the asset's price has become more predictable:

According to the expert, the current volatility of the first cryptocurrency is at the level of shares of large companies, such as Nvidia. Hougan considers this to be the "new normal" for the asset.

This, in turn, affects the adoption of Bitcoin by asset managers. If the starting point was 1% before the launch of spot ETFs, now it is 5%, Hogan emphasized.

According to the expert, the wave of ICOs from fraudulent projects in 2018 was one of the reasons for the subsequent bear phase in the market. Most investors wrote off this tool, however, it was mentioned in his speech by the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Paul Atkins.

In summary of all the above, Hougan noted that markets rise not on good news, but on good news that is not priced in. In his opinion, these factors may play their role in the coming months or years.