Monetary Policy

U.S. stablecoin giant Circle recently surged nearly 8% in stock price, hitting a four-month high, due to soaring oil prices and a cooling of interest rate cut expectations. Mizuho Securities raised its target price to $100, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, but became more optimistic about profit prospects. Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high, Circle's revenue will benefit accordingly, but market competition and regulatory pressures should still be watched carefully.

The Bank of Japan has launched a regulatory sandbox, planning to tokenize current account deposits to promote 24-hour settlement and participate in the Agorá program, with a decision on the digital yen by 2026. The experiment will explore the application of blockchain in settlement systems to reduce cross-border remittance costs and improve efficiency, and plans to incorporate private stablecoins to maintain financial stability.

2026-03-04 06:30 to 06:45 (UTC), BTC gained +0.79% in 15 minutes, with a price range of 68123.1-68672.3 USDT, achieving a 0.81% fluctuation. During this period, trading volume significantly increased, market attention rose, and volatility exceeded the intraday average, reflecting active short-term capital and heightened trading enthusiasm. The main driver of this anomaly is the continuous net inflow into the US spot BTC ETF products, especially single-day capital inflows led by major institutions (such as a peak of $458 million on a certain day in early March), pushing the market.

The controversy over US stablecoin regulation is intensifying. White House Digital Asset Advisor Patrick Witt rebutted JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's views, emphasizing that stablecoin yields are different from bank deposit interest. Although the GENIUS Act has established a regulatory framework for stablecoins, the divergence between banks and the crypto industry regarding revenue models has not been resolved, and no consensus has been reached between the two sides.

The U.S. Senate advances the "21st Century Housing Roadmap Act," explicitly restricting the Federal Reserve from issuing central bank digital currencies before 2030, aiming to improve housing affordability and protect financial privacy. The bill is supported by the White House, but the expiration clause in 2030 has sparked uncertainty, and future CBDC policies remain controversial.

Reuters reports that due to the US-Iran conflict causing market volatility, the Bank of Japan's probability of raising interest rates in March has decreased to about 5%. The Middle East situation affects oil prices and economic outlook, forcing the Bank of Japan to consider delaying the rate hike, possibly to April. The yen's depreciation may also prompt a rate increase to stabilize the exchange rate. Analysts point out that if the situation remains uncertain, the central bank will adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the data.

Trump criticized traditional banks on social media for attempting to undermine the GENIUS Act and called on Congress to expedite the passage of the CLARITY Act to promote the development of the US cryptocurrency market. He emphasized that banks should not use legislation as bargaining chips and pointed out that now is a critical time to safeguard American financial interests. Trump's tough stance reflects the fierce conflict between the banking industry and the cryptocurrency sector, especially regarding disagreements over stablecoin yield regulation.

_Oil shock and Fed uncertainty pressure Bitcoin, while ETF inflows fail to restore strong institutional demand._ Bitcoin swung sharply after U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran triggered a weekend risk-off move across

The European Central Bank warns that the proliferation of stablecoins could threaten the monetary sovereignty of the Eurozone, especially when foreign currency stablecoins dominate the market, affecting financial stability and policy transmission effectiveness. Many European banks are developing euro stablecoins to address potential risks and enhance financial stability.

Investment bank TD Cowen believes that the banking industry may be at a disadvantage in the debate over stablecoin yield policies, which could delay the progress of the U.S. Crypto Market Structure Act. The report notes that banks' opposition to stablecoin yields may harm consumer interests, making political support difficult to sustain. Meanwhile, the OCC is proposing rules related to stablecoins, including a ban on direct interest payments, and will also seek public comments in the future.

Affected by rising oil prices and changing interest rate expectations, Circle Internet Group's target price has been raised to $100, with the stock price increasing nearly 8% to $103.71. Analysts note that changes in interest rates could have a greater impact on valuation. Although revenue expectations have been slightly raised, a clearer regulatory framework may intensify competition, putting long-term profit margins under pressure.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Jintiao, CME "Federal Reserve Watch" shows a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until March, and a 2.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. By April, the probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut is 14.4%, the probability of holding rates steady is 85.3%, and the probability of a total 50 basis point cut is 0.3%. By June, the probability of a total 25 basis point rate cut is 37.1%.

Key Insights Circle CRCL stock trades near key support as investors await the Clarity Act decision that could reshape US digital asset regulation framework. Bitcoin and XRP rally while gold and silver surge as geopolitical tensions drive demand for both risk and safe-haven assets. CRCL

Senate housing bill bars Fed from issuing or facilitating a retail CBDC, including similar digital assets, until 2030. Measure passed 84–6 after late insertion, formalizing limits despite prior Fed stance requiring Congress approval. U.S. pauses digital dollar plans as China and Europe

ChainCatcher News, according to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Smith said that macroeconomic conditions need to be monitored, and the inflation target has been lowered to 2%; it is expected that a large amount of fiscal stimulus measures will be introduced by 2026.

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig stated that the agency will allow professional perpetual contracts to operate in the U.S. within the next month and expects to issue an announcement. Meanwhile, the CFTC and SEC are advancing digital asset policies through Project Crypto, aiming to provide clear guidance for the industry. SEC Chairman emphasized that legal certainty is still needed, and relevant legislation in the Senate is still under negotiation.

Between 14:30 and 14:45 (UTC) on 2026-03-03, the price of BTC experienced a significant decline, with a return of -0.99%. It fluctuated within the range of 66,366.6 to 67,576.7 USDT, with an amplitude of 1.80%. Short-term volatility intensified, market attention rapidly increased, trading volume expanded accordingly, and overall sentiment leaned towards caution or even panic. The main driving force behind this anomaly is the decline in global macro risk appetite, with funds accelerating into traditional safe-haven assets. Additionally, expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and geopolitical tensions contributed to liquidity tightening. On-chain capital flow experienced

Over the past two years, regulatory discussions around stablecoins have become increasingly intense. Hong Kong and the United States have respectively introduced regulatory frameworks, marking the transition of stablecoins from market experiments to formal institutionalization, making them compliant assets. Hong Kong plans to issue stablecoin licenses and promote their use, while the US clarifies their positioning within the financial system, demonstrating that stablecoins are gradually integrating into the mainstream financial ecosystem. This shift lays the foundation for the sustainable development of the global digital currency ecosystem.

2025 will be a key year for the gold and silver markets, as these two precious metals continue to rise amid the macroeconomic environment, attracting investor attention. In early 2026, prices sharply declined due to policy changes. In contrast, Bitcoin's performance has been highly volatile, highlighting the importance of a diversified investment portfolio. In a high-volatility environment, risk management and investment diversification are especially crucial.