Monetary Policy

If you feel the market has moved but do not know which way to bet, today's market answer is actually deeply divided: CPI gave the Fed some breathing room, but the Treasury market is not buying it; AI hardware rebounded across the board, while after-hours trading following earnings reports is exposing a lack of confidence; gold skyrocketed $460 in 9 days and copper hit an all-time high, as hard assets are being repriced. All three lines are saying the same thing: “good news” is no longer good eno

The Federal Reserve faces a 59.9% probability of holding interest rates steady at 3.5-3.75% during its September 16 FOMC meeting, according to CME FedWatch data reported on August 13. The shift follows weaker-than-expected July employment figures and stabilizing inflation metrics. One month prior on

According to JPMorgan strategist David Lebovitz, Japan's central bank is raising rates for the third time in 12 months as the economy exits its 30-year slump, putting pressure on the yen and threatening the carry trade that has historically funded cryptocurrency investments. The U.S. and Japan

The Bank of England's Digital Pound Lab is testing whether stablecoins and a potential digital British pound can operate within the same cross-border payment flow, according to a Wednesday announcement from NOBO Finance, Dun & Bradstreet and Polygon Labs. The experiment involves an exporter

Federal Reserve rate expectations remain divided across trading venues following July inflation data release. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% year-over-year, matching economist forecasts, yet CME FedWatch assigns 44% probability to a September 16 rate hike while prediction

On August 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the July inflation data that markets had been eagerly awaiting. Headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year, while core CPI fell to 2.5% year over year, with both figures matching expectations. After the data was released, crypto assets, gold, and U.S. stock futures all showed choppy short-term moves, initially falling before rebounding. However, the latest pricing in the interest rate market delivered the signal that truly deserves attention.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year-over-year in July, matching economist consensus estimates and slowing from June's 3.5%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, also met expectations at 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.6%

Gold spot prices recovered to $4,363.51 per ounce as of the 11th, rebounding from a sharp decline earlier this year. The precious metal had fallen 28.98% from over $5,500 per ounce in late January to near $3,900 in early July, pressured by US-Iran war concerns and Federal Reserve rate hike

According to Korea Exchange, gold spot prices recovered to $4,363.51 per ounce on August 11, rising 6.82% from the $4,000 level at the start of the month. The rally came as U.S. interest rate-hike expectations faded following weaker-than-expected July employment data. CME FedWatch now prices a 50.1%

According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin traded at US$63,680 early Wednesday, down 0.48% over 24 hours with a market cap of US$1.28 trillion, as US employment figures and upcoming inflation data shifted Federal Reserve rate expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the economy lost 23,000 jobs in

GSR, a prominent crypto market maker, attributes Bitcoin's sluggish momentum this year to capital rotating into artificial intelligence infrastructure rather than crypto-specific factors. Spencer Hallarn, Head of Markets at GSR, said in a recent interview that the slowdown gripping digital assets is

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes analyzed in his latest article, “Yen Earthquake,” that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is planning a measure aimed at strengthening the yen. The core idea is for Japan to pledge U.S. Treasuries through the FIMA repo facility to borrow dollars from the Fed rather than sell Treasuries. Hayes believes this would force the Fed to expand its balance sheet. Hayes’s Three Proposals for Strengthening the Yen and Their Respective Risks (Source: Substack) According to Hay

Bitcoin traded around $63,700 on August 12, remaining trapped in the $62,000–$66,000 sideways range for more than five weeks. Wincent executive Paul Howard noted that steady ETF inflows are being offset by over-the-counter selling from miners and Strategy (MSTR), while cryptocurrency trading volume has fallen to its lowest level in three years. Bitcoin Trapped in the $62,000–$66,000 Range (Source: SoSoValue) According to analysis by Paul Howard of Wincent, Bitcoin’s recent price action is being

From 15:30 to 15:45 on August 11, 2026 (UTC), BTC fell 0.48% over the short term, with its price declining from 63,860 USDT to 63,448.7 USDT and an Ampl of 0.64%. Market trading was subdued, with the overall pullback occurring on low volume. The core drivers of this move were the combination of rising geopolitical risks and macroeconomic policy uncertainty. The deadlock in the U.S.-Iran conflict continued, with the issue surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remaining unresolved. Iran proposed six ne

Bitcoin recovered above the psychologically significant $65,000 level on August 8, marking its first breach of this resistance since July 31, according to multiple data sources. The rally was driven by a sharp miss in U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP), which fell by 23,000 in July versus consensus

US labor markets posted a loss of 23,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in July as of 08/07 23:03 KST (10:03 EDT), falling sharply below expectations of an 83,000 to 95,000 job increase. The probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike dropped from 57% to 43.9% following the employment report

According to Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, the most likely path to a stronger yen is not aggressive Bank of Japan rate hikes or large-scale Treasury sales, but Japan using the Federal Reserve's FIMA repo facility. Hayes suggested this approach could benefit Bitcoin, gold, and