Global TradFi & Macroeconomics

Gate News, according to Tree News, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year over year, below market expectations of 3.4%. The U.S. Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year, also below market expectations of 2.7%.

Gate News message: On April 10, according to CME "FedWatch" data, before the CPI data is released, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. Looking ahead to June, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points is 1.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.8%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 1.7%.

Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF “MSBT” has officially launched, becoming the first such product issued by a major bank, with a management fee as low as 0.14%. It pulled in $34 million on day one, indicating strong market demand for low fees and advisor distribution channels. This move marks the full-scale entry of traditional financial institutions into the crypto asset market, shifting the competitive focus to fees, liquidity, and the ability to reach customers.

Circle’s Chief Strategy Officer Dante Disparte responded to the Drift Protocol theft incident, emphasizing that freezing USDC is being carried out according to law, calling for stronger coordination between law and technology, and suggesting that DeFi protocols should draw on protection mechanisms from traditional markets to advance legal protection of property rights and financial privacy.

Gate News, on April 10, Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly and oil prices fall, a rate cut is “not impossible.” She also noted that the likelihood of a rate hike is lower than the likelihood of cutting rates or keeping interest rates unchanged.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, OJUICE (Orange Juice) has dropped by 4% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Gate News update: On April 10, RWA tokenization platform Libeara announced it has completed a new round of funding. AlloyX Ventures, a venture capital firm under Nasdaq-listed company SOLOWIN HOLDINGS, participated in the investment. The specific amount has not been disclosed. Libeara said the new funds will be used to advance the development of compliant digital infrastructure.

Banks such as Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and investment banks like Goldman Sachs predict that gold may rebound in the long term, mainly driven by central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. ANZ expects the gold price to reach $5,800 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs maintains a $5,400 outlook, saying that central bank gold purchases will be a support factor.

CME will begin offering 24/7 trading for crypto futures starting May 29, and will also add AVAX and SUI futures, showing that traditional finance is rapidly moving closer to the crypto market. This move not only meets market demand for round-the-clock trading, but also serves as a test of whether future traditional financial assets can operate 24/7. The new futures contracts will provide more flexible options and capital efficiency, further expanding CME’s crypto product lineup.

TD Cowen cut Strategy (MSTR)’s target price by 20.5% to $350, maintained a Buy rating, citing a lowered expectation for the price of bitcoin. For fiscal year 2026, its forecast for bitcoin revenue was reduced to $7.87 billion, and it still believes MSTR will convert demand for market volatility through leverage.

xStocksFi launched on the Mantle network on April 10, allowing users to trade 10 of the most prominent U.S. stocks 24/7. The project is supported by BackedFi and Flowdesk, aiming to improve the distribution efficiency of real-world assets and deliver low trading fees and a fast, smooth experience. More features are planned for the future.

Gate News Message, April 10, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Lavanchi said today at a meeting attended by representatives of foreign diplomatic missions in Iran and international organizations that all parties have reached consensus, and Iran’s Ten-Point Plan will serve as the basis for negotiations. He emphasized that Iran has always welcomed diplomacy and dialogue, but it will never accept dialogue based on false information, intended to deceive, and meant to pave the way for a renewed military aggression against Iran. (CCTV News)

A cryptocurrency exchange became the first CEX to be approved for a Federal Reserve master account, but the account is restricted—access is limited to the Fedwire payment system, and it cannot earn interest. This move has sparked concerns about financial risk and transparency in the U.S., and regulatory experts warn it could affect financial stability. The exchange said it is complying with anti–money laundering requirements.

On April 10, ahead of the US stock market open, crypto-related stocks generally rallied, with CRCL up 1.7%, MSTR up 0.14%, SBET up 0.78%, and ABTC up 1.35%. msx.com is a decentralized RWA trading platform that has launched multiple RWA tokens.

Analyze market expectations before the release of the U.S. March CPI data, divergences in the inflation structure, and the potential transmission pathways to crypto assets’ risk appetite.

TSL is secretly developing a small SUV called NV91/NV93, with a length of 4.28 meters, and production costs that are at least 20% lower than the facelifted Model Y. The car is planned to go into mass production in China in mid-2026. Internally, it is positioned as “autonomous driving with a manual driving option retained,” and it is also intended to serve the mass market and the self-driving ecosystem. The production plan will be carried out in three phases, and then it will be rolled out to the United States and Europe.

Gate News message, on April 10, according to Alternative data, the crypto fear and greed index today is 16, up 2 points from yesterday’s 14, with the market’s “fear” sentiment slightly easing. The index threshold range is 0-100; based on an overall assessment of market sentiment, its components include: volatility (25%), market trading volume (25%), social media buzz (15%), market surveys (15%), Bitcoin’s share across the entire market (10%), and Google trending search analysis (10%).

Gate News message, April 10, the Kremlin issued a statement regarding special envoy Dmitryev’s visit to the U.S. The Kremlin said that this trip was not a restart of peace talks on Ukraine, and that Dmitryev did not negotiate on the Ukraine issue. The Kremlin emphasized that Russia is seeking peace rather than a ceasefire; as long as Ukraine’s President Zelensky makes a decision, peace can be achieved today. In addition, the Kremlin noted that a ceasefire for Orthodox Easter has humanitarian significance.

Bitcoin prices fell to $70,981 amid uncertainty over a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, affecting market confidence. While Bitcoin saw a minor decrease, altcoins like Ether and Solana faced sharper declines, and global risk assets struggled with tightening monetary policy.

ING analyst Francesco Pesole said that if U.S. March CPI were to accelerate sharply due to energy prices rising after the Iran war, the dollar could receive support. He noted that whether core inflation shows any second-round effects will be crucial for the Federal Reserve’s policy in the coming months.