Global TradFi & Macroeconomics

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, says strong earnings are helping markets absorb geopolitical shocks, despite ongoing risks.

Key factors, such as ETF flows, macro factors and on-chain supply favor a rally in bitcoin even as war risks linger.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, Hong Kong has become a key hub for the movement of Iranian funds, facilitating up to $4.8 billion in financial transactions through shell companies to help Iran evade U.S. sanctions, including oil proceeds and military technology procurement. In addition, Hong Kong’s support has enabled Iran to use the “ghost fleet” to smuggle crude oil and to resist unilateral sanctions, prompting the United States to change its strategy and impose sanctions on the relevant companies.

The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to surge sharply, but global stock markets responded relatively calmly. The VIX index suggests that market panic sentiment has eased, and investors have started to factor geopolitical risks into their considerations. Analysts believe that the worst period of panic may already be over and expect oil prices to fall back.

U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on China due to reports that China would ship air-defense systems to Iran. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, emphasizing its responsible stance on arms exports and opposing false allegations.

Gate founder Dr. Han introduced the platform’s development in the anniversary public letter, including deepening the AI ecosystem and a multi-asset trading framework. Gate is building an AI product ecosystem and has launched a TradFi trading section, covering multiple asset types to meet users’ needs. In addition, it has rolled out a digital Pre-IPOs participation mechanism, giving users a new way to access high-quality public offering projects. Going forward, Gate will continue to strengthen its infrastructure and enhance users’ global digital asset trading experience.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, JD (JD.com) has surged by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Gate News update, on April 13, BIT posted on X, saying that Bitcoin ETF fund flows have just turned positive again, and that it may achieve a continuous second month of net inflows. BIT noted that the current trend is highly similar to the same period in 2025, when early-year fund inflows were lackluster but were later followed by a concentrated surge of nearly $30 billion, driving a rebound after the tariff policy was implemented in April, and continuing through October. BIT said that net inflows resumed in March, which was the first time it turned positive since the pullback that began last October.

Gate News message: On April 13, the spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbia Central Headquarters of Iran’s armed forces said that in the face of U.S. threats, Iran will decisively implement a “permanent mechanism to control the Strait of Hormuz.” The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and it is a major global oil shipping route.

Gate News message: On April 13, European stocks opened broadly lower. The EURO STOXX 50 Index (the benchmark for European blue-chip stocks) fell 1.02%, the German DAX Index (the benchmark for the German stock market) fell 1.42%, the UK FTSE 100 Index fell 0.5%, the Spain IBEX35 Index fell 1.06%, and the France CAC40 Index fell 0.89%.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, USDZAR (USD/ZAR) has surged by 1% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Exodus CEO JP Richardson said that in 2026 the crypto market will see an unprecedented structural shift, with institutional investors moving in rapidly, while retail investors are absent at scale due to a cost-of-living crisis. Data shows retail activity has fallen to a nine-year low, and some funds are flowing to traditional markets. While sentiment is fragile in the short term, the outlook for the mid term is still viewed positively.

The Bank of Korea recommends introducing a circuit breaker mechanism in the crypto-asset industry to prevent abnormal trading, and points out that the Bithumb mistaken payment incident reveals a structural vulnerability. The governor nominee, Hyun-sung Shin, emphasizes that CBDCs and deposit tokens should be the core of digital currencies, and proposes a phased opening strategy for stablecoins. The Bank of Korea also plans to launch an offshore KRW system with real-time gross settlement in 2027 to reduce credit risk.

The U.S. Navy began blockading the Strait of Hormuz starting April 13, U.S. Eastern Time, with all passage halted. Crude oil prices jumped nearly 10% in a single day, while Bitcoin fell 1.2% over the past 24 hours.

Exodus CEO JP Richardson said this year, financial institutions have accelerated their participation in the cryptocurrency market, while retail investors have sharply reduced their activity, with engagement falling to a nine-year low. The main reasons are the cost-of-living crisis and inflation pressures.

Gate News message: On April 13, according to official sources, French listed company Capital B increased its holdings by 37 bitcoins, bringing its total bitcoin holdings to 2,925.

On April 13, XAU (gold contract) was trading at $4,717.28, down 0.56% over the past 24 hours. With the breakdown of the U.S.-Iran negotiations, market volatility has intensified; trading volume reached $1.34B, up 504.45% from last month. Liquidity is primarily concentrated across three centralized exchanges.

April 13, XAU is currently quoted at $4,717.28, down 0.56% over the past 24 hours. Geopolitical developments have affected trading activity, driving fluctuations in volume. Total trading volume for XAU futures across the entire network reached $1.34B, up 504.45% month-over-month. Liquidity on centralized exchanges is mainly concentrated on three leading platforms.

Taiwan’s solar power giant, United Renewable Energy, has seen its stock price swing sharply recently. After the National Development Fund announced changes to its holdings, selling pressure was triggered, pushing the shares to a daily trading halt. The fund’s exit is seen as a signal that policy is easing. Combined with news about the restart of nuclear power, it increases short-term selling pressure. United Renewable Energy emphasized that this is a phased exit, and expressed gratitude to its shareholders for their support.

SigmaIntell predicts that global DRAM prices will continue to rise in 2026 Q2, but the rate of increase will slow significantly to 30% to 50%. Driven by strong AI demand and weakening consumer electronics demand, the DRAM market is being restructured, and the supply-demand shortfall is widening. Although AI server demand is forecast to grow year over year by as much as 105%, demand for traditional consumer products is falling, so the overall supply-demand balance will shift from a surplus in 2025 to a shortage in 2026.