ETH 15-minute short-term up 0.67%: BTC’s difficulty decrease and risk-hedging sentiment amid the U.S.–Iran situation resonate together

From 18:30 to 18:45 (UTC) on August 2, 2026, ETH saw a slight short-term uptick of 0.67% within 15 minutes. The price ranged from 1868.93 to 1887.96 USDT, with an amplitude of 1.02%. The overall market is in an extremely low-volume, narrow-range consolidation state: the intraday amplitude is only about $62. Over the past 24 hours, ETH is down slightly by 0.59%. With limited fluctuation, it is a mild pullback rather than a significant disruption.

The main driver behind this move is BTC’s second-ever negative difficulty adjustment, combined with escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Luxor Hashrate Index reports that BTC experienced a negative difficulty adjustment, driven by factors including deterioration in the mining industry’s economics, AI infrastructure buildout drawing capital and power away, and the Iran conflict causing roughly 7 EH/s of hashrate to go offline. As a key asset in the crypto market, ETH is clearly affected by BTC weakness through correlation. Meanwhile, the US-Iran situation escalating has intensified market risk-off sentiment. The US is nearing a large-scale attack on Iran, which has already triggered the freezing of more than $1 billion in Iran-linked crypto assets. Oil prices have broken above $100 per barrel, putting broad pressure on the crypto market.

Second, the extremely shallow order book means that even a small amount of capital can move prices. The current buy/sell depth ratio is 1.30, which is relatively balanced, but there is only one level of effective depth on the order book. Technicals show 15-min ADX = 55.15, indicating a clear short-term bearish trend with strong trend strength. The 1h/4h levels are mildly bearish, but trend strength is average. On-chain, ETH’s accumulated score remains at 93, having been in an accumulation phase for 13 straight days. The token distribution still favors mid- to long-term holders.

Current volatility risk is relatively high. Watch the resistance zone from $1891 (4H Bollinger midline) to $1970 (July high), and the support zone from $1822 (recent low) to $1725 (a key trend level). If the US-Iran conflict escalates further, it could intensify risk-off selloffs. At the same time, continue monitoring changes in Filled Amount—whether the 15-minute bearish trend spreads into longer timeframes, and the extent of miner selling pressure following BTC’s difficulty adjustment.