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Canadian Intrerest Rate Preview: Expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, with further cuts in the future

GoldenOctober2024

2024-12-11 07:09:51

Jinshi data, December 11th, Royal Bank of Canada expects the Canadian Central Bank to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points on the basis of a 50 basis point cut in October, a total of 125 basis points since June. The Canadian economy has not collapsed to the extent that it would cause panic at the Canadian Central Bank, but it is clear that the interest rate is already higher than the level needed to maintain the 2% inflation target. Overall GDP growth in the second half of this year is lower than the Canadian Central Bank's forecast in October, with per capita GDP declining for the sixth consecutive quarter in the third quarter. The unemployment rate has risen by a full percentage point compared to a year ago, and the rise in the consumer price index is basically equal to or lower than the Canadian Central Bank's 2% inflation target for the full year of 2024. The bank still expects the Canadian Central Bank to need further interest rate cuts in the next year, and the interest rate is expected to ultimately be lower than the Canadian Central Bank's estimate of the neutral range of 2% for the mid-2025.

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