Strategy held 842,138 BTC as of 2 August 2026 at an average cost of $75,419, according to its 8-K filing on 3 August. With Bitcoin trading at $64,111 on 5 August 2026, the company's position sits roughly $9.5 billion underwater. Analysis of real order-book depth against the company's holdings produces three modeled price levels: a $43,700 floor if Strategy liquidates over twelve months, a $23,800 scenario if forced to sell at the pace Germany did in 2024, and a $78,200 relief case if the market overhang clears. The company sold 1,638 BTC in the week ending 2 August at an average $63,957 to fund $52.4 million in preferred dividends and $52.3 million in stock repurchases. Measured 24-hour spot volume across major venues totals 40,535 BTC—making Strategy's stack equivalent to 20.8 days of actual turnover, not the 2.4 days implied by headline volume figures that include wash trading and round-tripping.
Strategy Holds 842,138 BTC at $75,419 Average Cost as of 2 August 2026
Strategy's 8-K filing on 3 August 2026 disclosed the company held 842,138 BTC as of 2 August with an aggregate purchase price of $63.51 billion, averaging $75,419 per coin. At Bitcoin's $64,111 price on 5 August 2026 (Coinbase, cross-checked at $64,076 on CoinGecko and $64,168 on Binance), the position carries a market value of approximately $53.99 billion—$9.5 billion below cost basis. The company sold 1,638 BTC during the week ending 2 August for $104.73 million at an average price of $63,957. Of the proceeds, $52.4 million funded preferred dividends and $52.3 million funded STRC repurchases. Strategy posted an $8.2 billion loss in Q2 2026 and holds a $4.0 billion USD reserve, according to its Q2 10-Q filed 3 August 2026. The company's Bitcoin position represents approximately 4.22% of all mined bitcoin, calculated against a total supply of roughly 19.96 million BTC.
Measured Order Book Depth Shows 890 BTC Within 1% of Spot Across Major Venues
A snapshot of live bid-side order books on 5 August 2026 revealed visible depth within 1% of spot price totaled approximately 890 BTC across four major venues. Binance's BTC/USDT book held 316 BTC ($20.2 million), Coinbase's BTC-USD book held 204 BTC ($13.0 million), Kraken's XBT/USD book held 273 BTC ($17.5 million), and OKX's BTC-USDT book held 96 BTC ($6.1 million)—combining to roughly $57 million. Strategy's single weekly sale of 1,638 BTC was approximately 1.84 times this combined visible bid depth. Coinbase's entire Level 3 bid book down to a price 20% below spot held just 2,967 BTC ($167 million), making Strategy's position 284 times larger than Coinbase's complete downside bid book. Measured 24-hour spot volume across the ten deepest USD, USDT, and USDC books on Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Bybit, and Bitstamp totaled 40,535 BTC (approximately $2.60 billion). This measured volume is 8.8 times smaller than Bitcoin's reported 24-hour spot volume of $22.91 billion or 357,300 BTC. Against measured volume, Strategy's stack represents 20.8 days of turnover, not the 2.4 days implied by headline figures.
Germany's 49,858 BTC Sale Caused 14.3% Drawdown in 2024
Three historical episodes provide measured outcomes for forced Bitcoin supply. Saxon authorities sold 49,858 BTC between 19 June and 12 July 2024, routing coins through Kraken, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Cumberland, and Flow Traders at an average $57,900. Bitcoin closed at $65,175 on 18 June, bottomed at $55,858 on 7 July—a 14.3% peak-to-trough drawdown—and closed the sale window at $57,889, down 11.2%. The price then recovered fully, printing $65,354 by 1 August 2024, above the starting level. The Mt. Gox estate distributed approximately 141,686 BTC to creditors starting July 2024. From 5 July to 15 August 2024, Bitcoin moved from $56,629 to $57,541, up 1.6%, with a shallow 4.6% trough—nearly three times Germany's tonnage producing one-third of Germany's drawdown. Grayscale's GBTC held about 619,220 BTC when it converted to a spot ETF on 11 January 2024 and holds roughly 156,000 BTC currently—approximately 463,000 BTC of net outflow, or 55% of Strategy's entire position, released over two years. Bitcoin fell 15.2% in GBTC's first nine trading days, from $46,654 to $39,568, then rose to $71,389 two months later (up 53%) and closed 2024 up 100.6%.
Square-Root Impact Model Calibrated on Germany Sale Produces Three Price Scenarios
The analysis applied a square-root law of market impact—where price impact scales with the square root of order size relative to daily volume—calibrated on Germany's 2024 sale. For Germany: Q = 49,858 BTC, V = 28,488 BTC (Binance BTC/USDT average daily volume across the sale window), σ = 1.94% (30-day realized daily volatility into 18 June 2024), observed drawdown 14.3%. Solving gives Y = 5.57. Applying this coefficient to Strategy's position: Q = 842,138 BTC, V = 14,851 BTC (Binance BTC/USDT 30-day average), σ = 1.50% (30-day realized) produces an impact of 62.9% if the entire stack moved at German pace, placing Bitcoin at $23,762 (rounded to $23,800). Extending the sale horizon with standard T^(−0.25) damping produces: six-month liquidation at 38.0% impact ($39,700), twelve-month liquidation at 31.9% impact ($43,700), and twenty-four-month liquidation at 26.8% impact ($46,900). The relief case applies Germany's post-sale 22.2% recovery move (from 7 July to 28 July 2024 bottom-to-peak) to the current $64,111 price, yielding $78,334 (rounded to $78,200). At Strategy's current drip rate of 1,638 BTC per week (234 per day), the model predicts approximately 1% daily impact, but Bitcoin has traded a $58,625–$64,780 range through five consecutive weeks of disclosed sales, up 0.9% over 24 hours—indicating the flow is within market noise at 0.58% of measured daily volume.
Polymarket Independently Prices $43,700 Floor at 22% Probability
Polymarket's "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?" event, with $58,674 of 24-hour volume as of 5 August 2026, provides independent market-implied probabilities. The $78,200 relief case—between $75,000 (50.5% probability) and $80,000 (33.5% probability)—carries an interpolated market-implied probability of approximately 40%. The $43,700 orderly-liquidation floor—between a $45,000 dip (24.5%) and $40,000 dip (15.5%)—carries approximately 22% probability. The $23,800 disorderly tail—just below the $25,000 dip at 4.25%—carries approximately 4% probability. Investor Fred Krueger stated on 5 August 2026, as quoted by Forbes: "The problem now with MSTR is that Saylor will be motivated to sell BTC on the way up and eliminate his STRC prefs. So we have a 20 Billion dollar drag to look forward to. The buying phase is over." Michael Saylor wrote on X on 3 August: "When I say 'Never Sell Your Bitcoin,' I speak as one saver to another. I have never sold mine. Not one satoshi." Crypto markets commentator Zack Voell stated in the same Forbes report: "After spending six years and $60 billion to build a position he said he'll never sell, Saylor is -20% under water and selling. That's cinema."
FAQ
What would Bitcoin's price be if Strategy sold all its Bitcoin?
Between $23,800 and $46,900, depending on sale speed. A twelve-month orderly liquidation of 842,138 BTC models to approximately $43,700 using a square-root impact law calibrated on Germany's 2024 sale. Compressing the same volume into a few weeks at Germany's pace models to about $23,800—an 81% drawdown from the October 2025 high, consistent with previous Bitcoin bear markets.
How much Bitcoin does Strategy hold as of 2 August 2026?
842,138 BTC as of 2 August 2026, per the company's 8-K filed 3 August. Aggregate purchase price is $63.51 billion at an average of $75,419 per coin. At a $64,111 spot price, the position is approximately $9.5 billion underwater—$53.99 billion market value against $63.51 billion cost. It represents about 4.22% of all mined Bitcoin.
Does Strategy's weekly Bitcoin selling move the price?
Not measurably. At 1,638 BTC per week or 234 per day, the flow is 0.58% of measured daily spot volume. Bitcoin held a $58,625–$64,780 range through five consecutive weeks of disclosed sales. At this pace a full exit would require 9.9 years, making the drip a disclosure story rather than a price-moving event.
