Gold futures gained $23.00 on Tuesday, up 0.56%, settling above $4,110 after testing $4,136 in early New York trade. The advance followed the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of June job openings at 7.359 million, a decline of 178,000 from the prior reading and below the 7.40 million consensus, with healthcare shedding 147,000 openings, leisure and hospitality losing 86,000, wholesale trade giving back 74,000, and business services dropping 71,000. The softer-than-expected JOLTS report reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, with the FedWatch Tool currently pricing a 58.4% probability of a rate increase at the September 16 FOMC meeting, the lowest level in almost a week. The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29 in a 9-to-3 vote, with Chair Kevin Warsh stating policy remains data-dependent and the central bank will move if inflation is not demonstrably on track toward two percent.
Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 in Split Vote
The Federal Reserve maintained its target rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29 in a 9-to-3 vote, with three dissenters pushing for an immediate hike. Chair Kevin Warsh stated policy remains data-dependent and the Fed will move if inflation is not demonstrably on track toward two percent. Treasury markets responded to the decision with the ten-year yield climbing to 4.677 percent and the 30-year briefly topping 5.20 percent, its highest level since 2007. The Fed's June dot plot showed nine members projecting at least one additional hike, eight projecting no move, and one projecting a cut.
US-Iran Conflict Drives Oil-Gold Correlation Since February 28
The US-Iran conflict, which began February 28, has been the defining macro event of the year for gold markets. When oil rises on renewed Strait of Hormuz hostilities, inflation bets firm, rate-hike expectations rise, real yields jump, and gold sells off, with the reverse running equally. On Monday, Trump called off a planned strike and claimed a deal framework was in place, Brent fell more than 5%, gold firmed, then Iran denied any negotiations and the strait remained closed. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that lower oil prices are reducing US rate-hike expectations for this year and in turn supporting gold.
July NFP Data Set for Friday Release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern
The week ahead includes the ADP report alongside the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and July Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Deutsche Bank forecasts 65,000 new jobs with the unemployment rate at 4.2%, while broader consensus spans 40,000 to 90,000. Support at $4,000 marks the line that separates a healthy consolidation from a more troubling scenario for gold.
World Gold Council Reports Record $380 Billion First-Half Demand Value
The World Gold Council's Q2 2026 Demand Trends report showed total global demand of 1,269 tonnes for the quarter, with first-half value reaching a record $380 billion. Central banks purchased 289 tonnes in the quarter, 1.6 times the year-ago pace, with the Bank of Korea among the latest to expand reserve allocations. These sovereign decisions provide a durable floor for gold regardless of near-term rate developments.
Dollar Posts Worst Monthly Drop Since April with 1% July Decline
The dollar fell more than one percent in July, its worst monthly showing since April, providing a tailwind for bullion even when rate-hike fears ran hot. Jackson Hole arrives in late August, and Chair Warsh's maiden symposium speech will be parsed for signals about the year-end rate path.
FAQ
What caused gold futures to gain $23.00 on Tuesday?
Gold futures gained $23.00 on Tuesday following the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of June job openings at 7.359 million, which declined 178,000 from the prior reading and missed the 7.40 million consensus. The softer-than-expected JOLTS report reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, with the FedWatch Tool pricing a 58.4% probability of a rate increase at the September 16 FOMC meeting.
How did the US-Iran conflict impact gold prices on Monday?
On Monday, Trump called off a planned strike and claimed a deal framework was in place, causing Brent to fall more than 5% and gold to firm. Iran then denied any negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, with the market settling back into its cautious summer range. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo stated that lower oil prices reduced US rate-hike expectations and supported gold.
