Morgan Stanley Outlines Three Scenarios for Open vs. Closed Source AI Models, Names Nvidia as Universal Winner

According to Morgan Stanley's latest research report, the investment bank has mapped out three potential outcomes for the open source versus closed source AI models competition, identifying beneficiary stocks across semiconductors, cloud computing, security software, and energy infrastructure. The report notes that 63% of enterprises have already incorporated open source models into their AI tech stack, typically alongside proprietary solutions, according to McKinsey research across 700 tech leaders in 41 countries.

Nvidia emerges as the core beneficiary across all three scenarios, as GPU demand remains fundamentally unchanged regardless of whether computing workloads concentrate in hyperscale data centers or distribute to edge devices. Power generation companies including Bloom Energy, INNIO, Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Williams, and Liberty Energy also maintain beneficial positions across all scenarios, supported by structural growth in electricity demand from AI expansion.