Bitcoin Forecast to Trade $57,700–$67,000 in August, Down 50% From Cycle High

According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr, Bitcoin is forecast to trade within $57,700–$67,000 in August, the most likely scenario with 55% probability, having retraced approximately 50% from its October 2025 cycle high of $126,200. Price is approaching on-chain realized cost, suggesting potential consolidation. The report projects month-end settlement at $60,000–$64,000.

A bearish scenario (30% probability) targets $52,800, testing on-chain realized price below $57,700. A bullish case (15% probability) requires sustained break above $67,000, supported by continued spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, lower U.S. Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar, targeting $71,000–$74,000.