Author: Brother Bing / Bing Brother
8:00 am: Wake up, and my phone notifications show news of the US and Israel jointly declaring war on Iran.
Maybe I've been in Dubai too long, because I feel a bit indifferent about the region's wars. Although Dubai is located in a powder keg, the UAE has always been in my mind a neutral, safe Middle Eastern Switzerland.
After all, money from both black and white markets flows here. I think to myself, Iran wouldn't destroy its own little treasury.
- 9:30 am: A colleague comes to see me about something, so we go downstairs for coffee and brunch. He's flying back to the UK from Abu Dhabi today; his flight hasn't been canceled, and his ticket remains unchanged. Everything seems normal.
- 12:00 pm: I start working at home for lunch. Then I see Iran has decided to attack neighboring Gulf countries. I didn't take it seriously at first. It wasn't until I saw photos of missiles from friends in Abu Dhabi on Instagram that I realized things might be more serious than I thought.
- 1-3:00 pm: Throughout the afternoon, people around me keep saying they hear missile explosions. Since I didn't hear anything myself, I naturally assumed these accounts were spreading false information.
- 4:30 pm: While I was working intensely at my computer, suddenly a loud explosion erupted overhead, causing my balcony door to shake. I went out to the balcony and indeed smelled the scent of gunpowder in the air.
Because I had a Pilates class at 5, and maybe my mind hadn't fully processed what was happening, I closed the balcony door and went downstairs for class. When I reached the street, it was surprisingly peaceful and calm. People walking their kids, walking their dogs.
The café next to the yoga studio was full of people. Influencers were still happily taking selfies.
- 6:00 pm: After working out and returning home, the explosions became more frequent. I saw on the internet that a hotel on Palm Island was hit, and there was smoke rising near City Walk.
Funny thing is, I was discussing company matters with my co-founder on the phone when I heard the explosions outside. I kept wondering: are these missiles or Ramadan fireworks? Several times I interrupted the call to step out onto the balcony to check if anything was falling from the sky.
- 7:30 pm: After finishing work, I went for a walk downstairs. The streetlights were on, shops open, and the crowd didn't seem panicked—except for a longer delivery time.
I thought I could spend the night peacefully, waiting for Khamenei to be captured, for the Iranian people to be liberated, and everyone to go back to their lives.
But then...
- 12:30 am: In the middle of the night, while eating Japanese takeout at home, I received messages on all my phones and computers saying there was a missile attack. At that moment, I heard loud explosions outside. I quickly grabbed my passport, wallet, and phone, rushed out of the house, and took the elevator down to the garage. There was a Ukrainian man and a couple of Indian parents holding sleeping children in the elevator.
- 1:30 am: I stayed in the garage for over an hour. Then I saw on social media that Khamenei had died, but also that Dubai Airport was completely destroyed. As I was debating what to do, the building staff came over and told us to go back upstairs.
When I got home, I saw a message from a friend saying Iran probably wouldn't attack the UAE for now, but had shifted its focus to Israel.
- The next morning at 8:00 am: 24 hours had passed. Aside from the explosion at the Burj Al Arab last night, there were no reports of heavy casualties. In my area, I could hear occasional blasts.
Iran said it would continue attacking the Gulf today, trying to force the US to stop its attacks on Iran.
Finally, let's talk about the impact of this attack on Dubai and the UAE.
Many compare this incident to Russia's invasion of Ukraine—completely ignoring the reality. Airstrikes are one thing; ground warfare is another. The likelihood of the UAE's territory being occupied is extremely low. This country is unlikely to enter a prolonged state of war.
The real impact is that the narrative of Dubai as a "golden dream" and a "successful Middle Eastern reform and opening case" has been torn apart. As a global tourism and capital flow hub, Dubai will face short-term shocks. The first affected sector is tourism. The second is short-term real estate speculation by investors.
Longer-term and more dangerously, there will be a significant decrease in foreign immigrants. An economy heavily dependent on foreign populations and capital inflows relies greatly on stability. Many Europeans come to Dubai for jobs or tax advantages; after a few missiles, they might head to Singapore or other Asian countries.
Of course, the UAE is a highly efficient monarchic country. Plus, with abundant resources, this black swan event came at a somewhat opportune time, serving as a wake-up call. Next time, maybe my building should have an air-raid shelter.
That's all for now. I'm going downstairs to buy a coffee.
