Is Ethereum's price approaching a "historical low"? MVRV signals suggest ETH may be approaching a critical turning point

February 10 News: Ethereum (ETH) continues to fluctuate at low levels, with the latest price hovering around $2,000 and failing to regain the $2,100 resistance level. As on-chain valuation metrics enter historically sensitive zones, the market is reassessing whether ETH is approaching a long-term bottom or if there is still a risk of a secondary decline.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that Ethereum's current Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has significantly deviated from its "fair range," a level that historically only appears at the end of major bear markets. He mentioned that during the COVID-19 crash in 2020, the 2018 bear market bottom, the Terra-Luna collapse in 2022, and the market sharp decline in April 2025, ETH's valuation also fell into similar ranges, followed by medium- to long-term rebounds.

However, on-chain analyst Jao Wedson offered a more cautious interpretation. He stated that Ethereum's MVRV Z-Score has fallen to -0.42, entering the "capitulation zone," but remains above extreme values associated with clear bottoms in the past, such as -0.76 at the end of 2018. This indicates that market pressure is real, but panic selling has not yet reached historical extremes.

Wedson emphasized that true market bottoms are rarely formed in a single event but develop gradually after multiple failed rebounds and range-bound oscillations. Therefore, even if valuation metrics suggest deep undervaluation, the price path may still experience significant volatility.

From the current structure, ETH is in a stage where opportunities and risks coexist. Valuation levels provide a logical basis for long-term allocation, while momentum and sentiment indicators still suggest that short-term uncertainty has not been fully resolved. For investors, maintaining patience and risk management may be more crucial than betting on a specific timing.