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Analysis: The upcoming yen interest rate hike may not trigger risk aversion in the crypto market

bitcoin news Market Analysis

2025-12-13 15:24:41

BTC-0.56%

PANews December 13 News, according to CoinDesk reports, the last interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan led to an appreciation of the Japanese Yen, triggering a sharp rise in market risk aversion sentiment, which caused Bitcoin prices to fall from about $65,000 to $50,000. However, the upcoming interest rate hike in Japan might not trigger risk aversion in the crypto market for two reasons: first, speculators currently hold a net long (bullish) position in the Yen, making it unlikely for them to react quickly to the Bank of Japan's rate hike; second, Japan's government bond yields have continued to climb this year, with both short-term and long-term yield curves reaching multi-decade highs. Therefore, the upcoming rate hike reflects that official interest rates are catching up with market trends. Meanwhile, this week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points while launching liquidity measures, bringing the rate to its lowest level in three years. Overall, these factors suggest that there is a low likelihood of significant Yen carry trade unwinding and year-end risk aversion.

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LongAndShortSuckers

· 2025-12-13 20:09

PANews December 13 News, according to CoinDesk, Japan's last interest rate hike caused the yen to rise, triggering a sharp increase in market risk aversion sentiment, which led to Bitcoin prices falling from about $65,000 to $50,000. However, the upcoming yen interest rate hike may not trigger risk aversion in the crypto market for two reasons: First, speculators currently hold a net long (bullish) position in yen, making it unlikely for them to react quickly to the Bank of Japan's rate hike; second, Japan's government bond yields have continued to climb this year, with both short-term and long-term yields hitting multi-decade highs. Therefore, the upcoming rate increase reflects that official interest rates are catching up with market trends. Meanwhile, this week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points while introducing liquidity measures, bringing rates to their lowest level in three years. Overall, these factors indicate a clear unwind of yen arbitrage positions and a year-end risk aversion sentiment.

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