In mid-November 2025, the price of Bitcoin dipped again to the $89,000 level, triggering $144 million in long position liquidations in a single day. However, derivative indicators show that futures premiums remain in a 4% positive range, and the options skew has not become extreme, indicating that traders are cautious but not panicking. Analysts believe this resilience may signal that the market is approaching a stage bottom, but a breakthrough above the $93,500 resistance level is needed to confirm a reversal. At the same time, weakness in tech stocks and uncertainty in employment data continue to suppress risk asset preferences.
Stability of Derivations in Bitcoin Price Fluctuations: Key Indicator Interpretation
In the third week of November 2025, Bitcoin tested the support at 89000 USD again after failing to hold 93500 USD, leading to a daily liquidation of 144 million USD in leveraged long positions. Nevertheless, the derivation market demonstrated remarkable resilience: the monthly futures premium remained stable at around 4% (with a neutral threshold of 5%), and the funding rate for perpetual contracts maintained an annualized level of 4%, without any negative rate situation dominated by shorts.
The delta skew indicator in the options market has remained at 11% over the past week, indicating that the premiums for put options are higher than those for call options, but still far from the panic threshold of 20%. This data collectively points to the market being in a "cautious but not desperate" state, in stark contrast to the extreme emotions during the flash crash on October 10.
Emotional suppression under the intertwining of macro pressure and industry-specific risks
Bitcoin traders' sentiment is suppressed by multiple factors: on one hand, the net outflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs has reached a total of $2.26 billion over the past 5 days, and market makers need to execute sell orders throughout the trading day to cope with redemptions, resulting in sustained selling pressure; on the other hand, the technology sector is experiencing a collective pullback, with stocks like Oracle, Ubiquiti, Oklo, and Roblox dropping over 19% in the past 30 days, reflecting concerns about excessive investment in AI infrastructure.
In addition, the impact of the U.S. government shutdown until November 12 has spread to the consumer sector, with retailer Target lowering its full-year profit guidance and warning of weak holiday season sales, while the stickiness of inflation further limits the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts. This macro backdrop has temporarily rendered the "digital gold" narrative of Bitcoin ineffective, with price movements becoming more correlated with traditional risk assets.
Leverage Position Structure Analysis: Why Do Futures Traders Refuse to Give Up?
Despite the price pressure, the open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains high, particularly with mainstream exchanges adding 36,000 BTC (approximately $3.3 billion) in leverage exposure last week, marking the largest weekly increase since April. Notably, in a declining market, the funding rate usually turns negative to indicate a retreat of long positions, but the current data remains stable, indicating that traders are positioning for a rebound with limit buy orders at lower levels.
This behavior pattern is different from the aggressive position buildup before the liquidation on October 10, with a more diversified position construction and controllable leverage. The futures premium on regulated platforms like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange remains narrow, indicating that institutional participants are mainly in a wait-and-see mode, while retail traders have become the main force in the current bottom betting.
Key Indicators of the Bitcoin Derivation Market (November 19, 2025)
- Futures Annualized Premium: 4%
- Perpetual Contract Funding Rate: 4%
- Options delta skew：11%
- Single Day Long Positions Liquidation Amount: 144 million USD
- Monthly ETF Net Outflow: 2.26 billion USD
- CME and offshore exchange premium difference: about 0.3%
Technical Analysis and On-chain Signals: What Levels Need to be Broken for Bottom Confirmation?
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $93,500 level to reverse the short-term downturn, with stronger resistance at the psychological level of $95,000. On-chain data shows that the proportion of long-term investors holding Bitcoin for over 1 year has risen to 76%, a new high since 2023, reflecting a reluctance to sell.
However, the exchange balance has increased by 120,000 BTC in the past two weeks, suggesting that some large holders may be reducing their positions during the rebound. The interaction between derivatives and the spot market indicates that if the price breaks through $92,000 and is accompanied by an expansion of futures premiums, it may trigger short covering and trend followers entering the market, forming reversal momentum.
Is the resilience of derivation a leading indicator or a trap?
Historical experience indicates that derivation indicators may fail in extreme market conditions. In June 2024, the futures premium remained in positive territory after Bitcoin dropped below $60,000, but the price subsequently fell another 15% before hitting the bottom. The uniqueness of the current market lies in the fact that institutional participation through ETFs is much higher than before, which requires traditional derivation signals to be recalibrated in conjunction with ETF flows.
If the outflow of ETFs slows down and the futures premium stabilizes at 5%, the current resilience can be seen as a positive signal; conversely, if institutional capital continues to withdraw, the leveraged buy orders from retail traders may become fuel for a new round of liquidations.
FAQ
1. How is the Bitcoin futures premium calculated?
It refers to the percentage difference between the futures price and the spot price. A positive premium usually reflects the cost of capital paid by long positions to obtain leveraged exposure.
2. At what level does the options skew indicator indicate panic?
When the delta skew exceeds 20%, it indicates a surge in demand for put Options, showing a strong market willingness to protect against downside risk.
3. How can ordinary traders use derivation indicators to determine trends?
The simultaneous changes in the futures premium, funding rate, and options skew can often indicate a trend reversal.
4. How does the current leverage level compare to before the flash crash in October?
The total open interest is approaching, but the position distribution is more dispersed, and the leverage ratio has decreased, enhancing the controllability of systemic risk.
5. How much influence does the derivation market have on Bitcoin spot prices?
During low liquidity periods, the closing of derivation positions may amplify spot volatility, but long-term prices are still driven by supply and demand fundamentals.
