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JPMorgan predicts a 50% chance of the Romanian currency depreciating by 15%-20%.

GoldenOctober2024

2025-05-09 09:00:49

On May 9, analysts at JPMorgan Chase believe that there is a 50% chance of political turmoil in Romania, resulting in a 15-20% depreciation of the country's currency, the leu, and another possibility is a 5% depreciation. Romania's financial markets have been tumultuous this week as far-right presidential candidate George Simion won the first round of voting on Sunday, deepening the political crisis in Central Europe's second-largest economy. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said that while stability after the decisive second round of elections on May 18 could limit the depreciation of the leu to 5%, further turbulence and uncertainty about how Romania will control its spending could trigger a bigger adjustment. "At the moment, we consider the probability between these two scenarios to be 50%/50%, but this is a highly uncertain judgment," they wrote. ”

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