Under the CLARITY Act, whether there will be a vote next week depends entirely on one sentence from the White House

On the morning of July 31, bipartisan Senators Tillis and Gallego delivered a new ethics compromise proposal to the White House.

Key change: it includes the enforcement role of state attorneys general.

Industry representatives spent all day yesterday calling and lobbying the White House. Treasury Secretary Bessent went straight at it on X, demanding the Senate “vote immediately,” and even pulled out a quote attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto to pressure lawmakers—

“If you don’t believe me or don’t understand, I don’t have time to try to convince you. Sorry.”

Translation: Stop talking—just vote.

But the reality is this— the White House’s response decides everything.

The White House is reviewing the draft. Their reply will, to a large extent, determine whether the Senate can move ahead with a vote next week.

And the Senate is set to recess on August 7.

There’s less than a week, at best, for the bill.

Do you know how the prediction market is viewing it right now?

On Polymarket, the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 has already fallen to 26%.

Kalshi gives 37%.

From 82% in February, down to today.

JPMorgan has directly warned: a declining probability of passage is a direct headwind for the entire crypto market. The longer it’s delayed, the more likely tokenization and blockchain applications will be absorbed by traditional financial infrastructure—not routed to public blockchains.

You think you’re betting on whether the bill passes.

Actually, you’re betting on whether, before recess, the White House will press this button.

But the issue has never been whether the button exists.

The issue is—pressing it requires 60 votes.

Republicans have 53 seats. Hawley and Paul are clearly opposed, so the number of votes that can realistically be used is fewer than 51.

At least 7 to 9 Democratic senators must be brought in.

But last week, seven Democratic senators publicly opposed it.

In one week, can seven opponents be turned into supporters?

That’s harder than making Bitcoin rise to 70k in a single day.

And don’t forget the hidden assassin—

The banks.

The stablecoin yield provision (Section 404) still hasn’t been resolved.

The banks want a complete ban on stablecoin interest payments.

The crypto industry wants users to be able to earn interest directly.

Insiders say the yield provision will be at least partially adjusted before the vote.

But the banks may demand more concessions.

Every round of concessions is another layer of the skin being peeled off your future on-chain yield.

My view—probability of passing this year: 25%.

Reasons:

First, time. With less than a week left, a gap of 60 votes can’t be closed in just a few days.

Second, the White House. Even if they give the green light, the Senate still needs time to schedule the vote, and the August 7 recess is a hard deadline.

Third, the banks. As long as the stablecoin yield provision isn’t resolved for a day, the bank lobbying group won’t let go for a day.

Fourth, the midterm elections. Miss the August window, and after the September reconvening there are only three weeks of sessions—then comes the midterm elections in November. Lawmakers are focused on the campaign trail; who cares about the bill?

The window is closing at a visibly fast speed.

You’ve been refreshing White House news all day.

Wall Street is in conference rooms, figuring out how to intercept your returns.

The White House holds the switch.

But behind the switch are 60 wires—each one being pulled by someone.

So which way do you think it will be switched? #Gate独家美股0费率 #USD1持币生息最高8% #长鑫科技市值突破4万亿元 $BTC $ETH $SOL