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What does a 91% win rate mean? How does the prediction market set the price for France vs. Iraq?

In the 2026 World Cup group stage, the France vs. Iraq matchup in prediction markets shows a set of extreme data. According to Gate prediction market data, as of June 22, 2026, the market is betting on France to win with a probability of 91%, a draw at 8%, and Iraq to win at only 2.5%, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.87 million. This probability distribution is not random market fluctuation, but a consensus price formed after funds comprehensively assess the two teams’ strength, tactical sys
GateInstantTrends·06-22 12:54
What does a 91% win rate mean? How does the prediction market set the price for France vs. Iraq?