#大空头加码做空AI芯片 Big Short investor Michael Burry makes his move, shorting Nvidia and warning that AI chip stocks could fall 30%
Being right about the direction does not mean being right about the price—what Burry is shorting this time has never been AI itself, but its overextended valuation
AI chip stocks could fall 30%.
This was not something a retail investor casually said, but a call from Michael Burry—the man who became famous for shorting subprime mortgages and served as the inspiration for The Big Short. The last time he made such a high-profile short bet was three years ago, the year Lehman collapsed.
The moment he showed his hand, the market panicked
On July 3, Burry publicly shorted Nvidia and also bet against chip ETFs, saying that “AI chip stocks could pull back 30%.” After the news broke, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12% in two days, while Nvidia dropped 16% over the same period. Yet in the previous quarter, these companies had collectively added about $2 trillion in market value—on one side, the strongest gains in history; on the other, the most aggressive shorting in history.
This was no coincidence, but more like a signal before a reckoning.
It is worth noting that Burry’s view comes from someone who once correctly bet against a once-in-a-century bubble, but he has also made multiple bearish bets since then that failed.
The market’s strong reaction to his words was less about believing his conclusion than about the fact that many people had already been on edge—the rally had gone too far and lasted too long, and everyone wanted to be the one who exited early.
He is not shorting AI, but AI’s valuation
Many people will misread this. Burry did not say AI is a scam. His actual view is this: AI may be real, but stock prices have already discounted several years of future delivery into today’s valuations.
In other words, he is not shorting the technology itself, but prices that have been overextended. And the market has actually already begun adjusting downward.
There are reports that Meta may cut orders and that multiple manufacturers are reducing their orders. The signal being transmitted through the chain is that supply is catching up with demand.
The core narrative supporting valuations over the past two years was that “computing power is in short supply.” Once that narrative begins to weaken, the entire valuation chain—from chips to cloud services to applications—will be repriced.
This script is nothing new.
Looking back at the Internet bubble of 2000, the belief that “the Internet would change the world” was completely correct, but that did not prevent related stocks from losing 80%–90% of their value over the following two years.
Being right about the direction does not mean being right about the price; having a story does not mean the current valuation is reasonable.
What truly deserves attention is that this AI boom is beginning to seriously judge itself for the first time. When an inflated market capitalization is taken for granted as reflecting “perpetual growth,” risk is never hidden in the fundamentals, but in your imagination—the price you are willing to pay for “it will definitely be realized in the future” determines how large a drawdown you will have to endure.
Do you think this round of AI chip growth is real, or is it a valuation bubble? Will it really pull back 30%? Share your thoughts in the comments. $NVDA ‌

#NFPShockSpikesRateCutOdds
THE NFP SHOCK CHANGED THE FED TRADE BUT THE MARKET IS ALREADY REPRICING AGAIN
The U.S. July jobs report initially delivered exactly the kind of economic shock that can transform Federal Reserve expectations. On August 7, nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, while economists had been looking for an increase of roughly 80,000. The unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, and revisions to May and June removed another 103,000 jobs from previously reported figures. The result was a much softer labor-market picture than investors had been expecting.
THE FIRST MARKET REACTION WAS CLEAR
Immediately after the report, U.S. rate futures sharply reduced expectations for a September rate hike. The probability of a September increase dropped from around 57% to approximately 44%, while expectations for the Federal Reserve to leave rates unchanged increased substantially. Treasury yields came under pressure as traders reassessed the possibility that weakening employment could give policymakers more room to remain cautious.
For risk assets, that shift matters because monetary policy expectations influence borrowing costs, liquidity conditions and investor appetite. A weaker labor market can reduce the pressure for additional tightening, potentially creating a more supportive environment for equities, technology assets and crypto.
BUT THE RATE-CUT STORY IS NOT SETTLED
This is where the latest market action becomes more important than the initial headline. By August 10, expectations for a September rate hike had already moved back above 50%, reaching approximately 51.7%, according to market pricing. Rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns helped reverse part of the initial move after the jobs report.
That means the NFP shock did not create a straightforward path toward a rate cut. Instead, it created a much more complicated policy debate: weaker employment versus persistent inflation pressure.
THE LABOR MARKET SIGNAL IS STILL IMPORTANT
The July payroll decline was not evenly distributed across the economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported employment declines in areas including local government education and retail trade, while healthcare employment continued to trend higher. The unemployment rate remained relatively contained at 4.1%, showing that the report was weak without yet representing a broad-based employment collapse.
That distinction matters for the Fed. Policymakers need to determine whether July represents a temporary slowdown or the beginning of a more persistent deterioration in employment conditions.
NOW CPI TAKES CENTER STAGE
The next major test arrives with the July U.S. CPI report on August 12. Markets are now watching inflation even more closely because the jobs data has made the Fed's next decision harder to predict.
A softer inflation reading alongside weak employment would strengthen the argument for a less restrictive policy path. Conversely, hotter-than-expected inflation could push rate-hike expectations higher again, especially with energy prices remaining a concern. Current market pricing already demonstrates how quickly expectations can change: the September hike probability moved from roughly 44% after NFP back above 50% within days.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR CRYPTO
Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets are now caught between two competing forces. Softer employment can support the liquidity narrative, while renewed inflation pressure can keep yields elevated and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to ease policy.
That creates a market where every major macro release carries greater weight. Traders should therefore avoid treating the NFP number alone as confirmation of an imminent rate cut. The more important question is whether employment weakness continues while inflation simultaneously cools.
THE NEW FED WATCHING GAME
The July NFP report clearly weakened the case for immediate tightening, but the rebound in September hike expectations shows that the market has not abandoned the hawkish scenario. The next CPI release could determine whether the initial NFP shock becomes the beginning of a sustained policy repricing or simply another short-lived volatility event.
For markets, the message is simple: the jobs report changed the odds, but inflation will decide how far those odds can move.
#CPI
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#GateCompensatesLiquidationUsers
#Gate
GATE MOVES TO COMPENSATE USERS AFTER ABNORMAL CONTRACT VOLATILITY
Gate has launched a special review and risk-control investigation following abnormal price movements in the TUTUSDT, LobsterUSDT and BICOUSDT perpetual contracts on August 9, 2026. The exchange says eligible users whose positions were liquidated during the affected market movements will receive full compensation in USDT under the announced compensation criteria.
WHAT HAPPENED
The issue centered on unusually sharp fluctuations in three perpetual-contract markets. Rather than treating the event as ordinary market volatility, Gate initiated a dedicated investigation covering the affected contracts and the liquidation activity associated with the abnormal movements.
The focus is on identifying users who experienced eligible liquidation losses during the specified period and determining compensation according to the exchange's review process.
COMPENSATION PROCESS
Gate has established a dedicated processing channel for affected users. Eligible users can contact the platform through available customer-service channels or their VIP account managers to begin the review process.
According to the announced plan, approved compensation is expected to be provided in USDT and transferred to the user's Gate Spot account. The exchange has indicated a target of implementing the compensation plan within three business days after the relevant review and processing requirements are completed.
WHY THIS MATTERS
Liquidation events can become particularly sensitive when prices move sharply in markets with limited liquidity. A sudden deviation can cause leveraged positions to close automatically once predefined liquidation levels are reached.
Gate's response puts the emphasis on reviewing the circumstances rather than leaving affected users to absorb qualifying losses automatically. It also highlights the importance of pricing mechanisms, liquidity conditions and risk controls in perpetual futures markets.
RISK-CONTROL RESPONSE
Beyond compensation, Gate has said it will strengthen its market-monitoring and risk-management framework. Areas of focus include detecting abnormal trading activity, improving controls for lower-liquidity markets, dynamically managing risk parameters and enhancing pricing and settlement mechanisms.
These measures are important because effective derivatives infrastructure depends not only on matching orders, but also on maintaining reliable pricing and orderly liquidation processes during extreme market conditions.
WHAT USERS SHOULD CHECK
Affected traders should verify whether their account activity falls within the specified compensation scope and follow Gate's designated processing procedure. Compensation is tied to the exchange's eligibility criteria, so not every liquidation across the platform automatically qualifies.
The key details remain the affected contracts, the liquidation timing, the account's transaction history and the final eligibility determination.
Gate's decision to investigate the abnormal movements and compensate qualifying liquidation losses places user protection and risk management at the center of the response.
For derivatives traders, the episode is another reminder that leverage magnifies not only potential returns but also the impact of sudden liquidity and pricing disruptions. Stronger surveillance, clearer settlement mechanisms and disciplined risk controls are therefore essential as crypto derivatives markets continue to expand.
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