#美联储10月加息概率降至17% 【Old Leek Watch】$BTC$BTC has been like a TV series these past two days—the news needs to be viewed in sequence. After the release of the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls data, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October changed suddenly. CME FedWatch showed that the probability of an October rate hike briefly fell to 17%. In other words, the market has significantly reduced its pricing for the Fed to continue hiking rates in October. Before the payrolls data was released, that probability was still around 28%. Why such a major change? Because the U.S. added only 29,000 jobs in September. The market had originally expected about 90,000. The unemployment rate also rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. The labor market is clearly beginning to cool. So the market's logic is now very simple: weaker employment means less need for the Fed to continue hiking rates, October rate hike expectations are falling rapidly, and risk assets are getting some breathing room. BTC did surge immediately. Its price briefly broke above $87,000. But here is the question: if the probability of a rate hike has fallen to 17%, why did BTC drop back from around $87,000? Because what the market is truly worried about has not been fully resolved. That is, long-term U.S. Treasury yields. A decline in near-term rate hike expectations does not mean the cost of long-term U.S. borrowing will immediately fall. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5%. So the market is actually trading two completely different things: on one hand, the Fed may no longer raise rates in the short term. On the other hand, the U.S.'s long-term funding costs remain very high. This also explains why BTC did not continue breaking higher after surging to $87,000. So what I am watching most closely next is not “whether rates will actually be raised in October.” It is whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield can genuinely continue to decline. If employment continues to cool while Treasury yields also begin to fall significantly, that would be a more comprehensive positive for BTC. But if only the rate hike probability declines while Treasury yields remain above 5%, BTC will still face pressure overhead. So what the market is really trading this time is not a 17% figure. It is this: the Fed's rate hike expectations are beginning to ease, but have U.S. dollar funding costs actually eased? $ETH $SOL

Under greedy sentiment, which way is ETH’s capital actually leaning? The answer lies in the funding rate: $ETH funding rate +0.0023%, longs are still paying to hold positions, but the price fell 2.41% in 24h, with the current price at 2685.14, clinging to the Bollinger upper band at 2692.17 and MA5 at 2682.77. This is a typical “crowded longs but unable to push higher” structure—the funding rate is positive, the price is stalling, and RSI is only 47.9, indicating insufficient incremental buying and that shorts are quietly accumulating. Although the MACD histogram at +2.019 still favors the bulls, its magnitude is weak; once MA20 at 2676.74 breaks, the probability of a wick sweeping stop losses will rise significantly. By comparison, $BTC ’s funding rate is negative at -0.0006%, meaning shorts are paying, yet the price has fallen only 2.15%, showing stronger downside resistance than ETH. Capital is more willing to short BTC for hedging rather than chase shorts. This means ETH’s decline is more likely driven by broader market momentum than by a collapse of its own. Direction: bearish in the short term; look to short a rebound near the Bollinger upper band. Entry reference 2688-2695 (Bollinger upper band + positive funding premium zone); take-profit 1 at 2676 (MA20 support); take-profit 2 at 2661 (Bollinger lower band); stop-loss at 2702 (0.4% above the upper band, to guard against a false-breakout wick). If the price holds firmly above 2702 on increased volume, the short thesis is invalidated. Also monitor: $CHZ and $BTC—CHZ rose 3.89% and its RSI of 59.2 is clearly stronger than both, while BTC is more resilient than ETH, with relative strength ranked CHZ > BTC > ETH. (Personal opinion for reference only; this does not constitute investment advice. Futures trading carries extremely high risk. Please strictly control your position size.) [Data] Coin: ETHUSDT Direction: Short Entry: 2688-2695 Take-profit 1: 2676 Take-profit 2: 2661 Stop-loss: 2702

🗳️【Poll】Can it break above 85,000 tonight? 💰 Current price 84,597.6, -0.81% 📊 24h high 87,239 / low 83,826 ⚖️ Buy 1.70M vs sell 571.56K, with buying pressure nearly 3x stronger 📍 It surged to a high of 87,374 three days ago and is now pulling back and consolidating 📈 7-day +0.58%, 30-day +4.03%, with the medium-term trend still bullish 🧱 84,117 (MA10) is short-term support; watch out if it falls below this level 🗳️ Voting time A. Holds above 85,000 tonight and targets 87,000 B. Continues to range, with 85,000 difficult to break 💬 Which one do you vote for? Comment A or B👇 $BTC ‌$ETH $SOL