Tonight at 22:00, Warsh’s Jackson Hole “Tightrope Walk”: A Speech That Will Decide the Pricing Power of the Dollar, Gold, and BTC
Guys, don’t sleep tonight.
At 22:00 Beijing time, Fed Chair Warsh will deliver his first keynote speech since taking office at Jackson Hole.
It’s been three months. Since taking office, this guy has done three things: canceled forward guidance, stopped updating the dot plot, and refused to explain the policy logic at press conferences.
The market is going crazy.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to its highest level since 2007. Gold is nearing a three-month high. BTC is jumping around near $80k.
Every word Warsh says tonight will price the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin.
First, let’s talk about why the Fed’s credibility has collapsed.
First, the communication vacuum.
At the July FOMC meeting, the vote was 9 to 3 to hold rates steady. At the press conference, Warsh refused to explain why—he directly said, “Let the market hike rates for the Fed.”
A reporter asked under what circumstances he would raise rates. No answer. Asked whether the inflation target would be adjusted. No answer.
What was the result? The bond market saw its most severe sell-off in years.
Second, the Treasury is making things worse.
Treasury Secretary Bessent announced last week that the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks would be expanded. The 30-year yield fell 10 basis points that day, then recovered all of the decline the next day.
The market was completely confused: Which of you two is actually in charge?
The exact words of Silver Gold Bull’s foreign exchange director in Toronto: “Warsh wants to reduce intervention so market signals become clearer, while the Treasury is distorting those signals. If Warsh does not clarify his position on Friday, the dollar could fall sharply.”
Third, the market is “hiking rates” for the Fed.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly broke above 5.3%, its highest level since 2007. Bank of America warned that if Warsh does not send a rate-hike signal tonight, the 30-year yield could surge to 5.5%.
The market is doing what the Fed does not dare to do.
There are only two possible outcomes tonight:
✅ Warsh “wins”—
Reaffirm inflation risks, retain the option to raise rates, and clearly define the policy reaction framework.
The market’s uncertainty premium declines, long-end yields fall, and the dollar stabilizes.
Gold and BTC could face short-term pressure—but note, only short-term pressure. Because the market will finally know what the Fed is doing.
❌ Warsh “loses”—
Continues to evade questions, speaks ambiguously, and repeats the scene from July.
Trust continues to erode, long-end yields keep rising, and the dollar comes under pressure.
Gold and BTC could move even higher—the “anti-fiat” trade fully resumes.
BTC is currently stuck near $80k. Up or down?
The answer is not in the candlestick chart, but in Warsh’s speech.
BTC is currently caught between “confidence in the dollar vs. rate-hike expectations.”
If Warsh remains vague, the market will continue trading policy uncertainty, and gold and BTC, as “anti-fiat” assets, could benefit.
If Warsh is hawkish, it could end the recent rallies in gold and BTC.
But there’s one piece of logic you guys need to figure out for yourselves:
Gold is already speaking through its price—rate hikes can no longer scare it.
BTC, meanwhile, is waiting for a confirmation signal.
After tonight, there will be only two kinds of people:
Those who figured it out in advance.
And those who wait until the move is over before asking, “What happened?”
Every word Warsh says tonight will price the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin.
He is not giving a speech—he is drawing the lines for global assets.#英伟达财报周 #BTC重返81000美元 #Strategy股价突破135美元 $BTC $ETH $XAU
