$ETH This is the plan for the short position (~2630) Idea: The price will likely rebound from here, and we make them believe the rise will continue, then enter the final drop > then rise again

Counterintuitive data 🤔 In 2026, the total amount of ETH staked increased by 7 million (36.3 million → 43.7 million), while the number of active validators decreased by 112,000 (975,000 → 863,000) Fewer staking nodes, more coins locked—the Ethereum staking ecosystem is becoming increasingly “institutionalized” 👀 Source: hokanews 10-07, citing BSCN data.

$ETH The key short-term level is 2474; a break below it opens the way to 2455, while only holding above 2490 would qualify for a rebound toward 2510. The current price is 2484.43, up 1.85% over 24h. The funding signals are somewhat contradictory: the funding rate is +0.0032%, meaning longs are paying to hold positions and sentiment has not capitulated; however, MA5=2488.93 has crossed below MA20=2491.81, with the price trapped below the moving averages, while RSI=42.9 is in the neutral-to-weak zone, indicating insufficient follow-through from buyers. The MACD histogram at +1.572 remains bullish and is currently the only supporting evidence; together with the Bollinger lower band at 2474.42, they form a short-term support zone. The core of the long-short battle is around 2474: this is the overlap zone between the Bollinger lower band and the lower boundary of the 5.49% amplitude over 30 candles. Once decisively breached, long stop-losses and short-chasing orders could easily reinforce each other, increasing the probability of a wick toward around 2455. Conversely, if the funding rate remains positive and the price recovers 2490, short covering could drive a test of the Bollinger upper band at 2509. The Fear and Greed Index is 59, in the greed zone, meaning dip-buying interest remains, but chasing highs offers poor risk-reward. The bias is bearish, with rebounds facing resistance as the main theme. Consider scaling into short positions in the 2488～2495 range; this zone is close to the MA5/MA20 resistance and RSI has not recovered. Take-profit 1 is 2474 (Bollinger lower band), and take-profit 2 is 2455 (extension of the previous low); set the stop-loss above 2512, corresponding to a breakout above the Bollinger upper band at 2509.2, at which point the bearish thesis would be invalidated. Also monitor: $AER and $ONDO. Both have bearish MACD readings and prices below the moving averages, making them relatively weak. Among them, $AERO has already turned lower over 24h and is weaker than $ETH. (For personal views only, not investment advice. Contract trading carries extremely high risk; strictly control your position size.) [Data] Coin: ETHUSDT Direction: Short Entry: 2488-2495 Take-profit 1: 2474 Take-profit 2: 2455 Stop-loss: 2512