When will the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Prediction market bets suggest there’s only a 52% chance it will be restored before the end of the year.
In July 2026, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fell to the lowest level in two and a half months. On July 23, only one oil tanker left the strait, with no ships entering. This strategic waterway carries about one quarter of the world’s seaborne crude oil trade and about one fifth of global LNG transport, and it is now experiencing the worst shipping crisis since the Iran-Iraq War. At the same time, the prediction market is seeing funds place bets on when the strait will reopen. According to
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