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First, here’s what I did. I added another 20% to my spot position at 63000. I personally think the risk-reward at this level is starting to look good. Why was I willing to buy? Because I’m scaling in, not going all in at once. I didn’t chase the price when it was high, and now that it’s fallen, I can add a little and lower my average cost. With spot, as long as you’re holding mainstream assets, things generally look fine over the long term. But you have to manage your position size: don’t go all in whenever prices fall and go fully out whenever they rise. That’s chasing pumps and selling dips, not investing.
As for futures, I haven’t made a move yet. Why? Because futures and spot are completely different things. If spot falls, you can hold on; if a futures position falls, you can get liquidated outright, without even a chance to recover. In this market, volatility is so high and the direction hasn’t stabilized yet. Opening a futures position rashly is just giving money to the market. I’m waiting for a clear signal, such as prices stabilizing on strong volume or repeatedly testing a key level without breaking below it. Then I’ll consider trying a small position. Remember, futures are a tool, not a gamble. Keep your position size small and always use a stop-loss.
One last thing: stop thinking you can buy the absolute bottom. That’s something only immortals can do. Scale in and keep some cash in reserve—that’s better than anything else.
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