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After Strategy was excluded by MSCI, many Bitcoin investors began to worry: If its stock price keeps falling, could it drag Bitcoin down with it?
This concern is not entirely unfounded, but the two should not be equated.
Strategy holds 850,364 BTC, a massive amount, so its stock performance can naturally affect market sentiment. This is especially true when investors view MSTR as a leveraged alternative to Bitcoin: a falling stock price could trigger more panic.
However, selling in the stock market and selling in the Bitcoin spot market are two different things.
Index funds selling MSTR does not mean they also obtain the BTC held by Strategy, nor does it mean the company must liquidate its holdings.
What could actually affect the Bitcoin market is whether future financing pressure leads the company to adjust its asset strategy or even, in an extreme scenario, sell Bitcoin.
This needs to be assessed in light of the company’s liabilities, cash reserves, debt maturities, and liquidity.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin’s price itself remains stable, Strategy’s stock price may not necessarily continue to weaken in lockstep with the index adjustment.
So investors should watch the two markets separately: BTC spot markets for supply and demand and capital flows, and MSTR stock for net asset value, financing structure, and valuation premium.
Don’t let the ups and downs of a single stock dictate your view of the entire Bitcoin market.$BTC