If gold is valued using “shadow prices,” the figures on paper really can come out to $5,200, $8,400, or even $21,000—numbers that seem unbelievable at first glance. A shadow price isn’t a real-time exchange quote; it’s derived by comparing the money supply with gold reserves. Some people divide U.S. M2 by official gold reserves and arrive at a theoretical value of over $8,000 per ounce. Use a broader measure of money or total global credit, and the figure can climb above $20,000. The $5,200 figure is more like a conservative coverage-ratio assumption. The huge differences between these models show precisely why gold has never been priced by a formula: its price reflects sentiment—how much trust people still have in paper money. After the dollar was decoupled from gold in the 1970s, gold surged from $35 to $850. After quantitative easing began in 2008, gold climbed from around $700 to above $1,900 in three years. And amid the shock of the 2020 pandemic, it hit a new high of $2,075. In each of these periods, the market didn’t first calculate a target price using a model; it repriced confidence in money. Since 2022, central banks around the world have made consecutive large purchases of gold: about 1,082 tons in 2022, 1,037 tons in 2023, and 1,045 tons in 2024. This “vote with their feet” is more telling than any forecast.

My approach is simple: I don’t try to call the top or bet that gold will reach one particular price. I sell high and buy low in volatile markets, buying when prices fall and trimming my position when they rise. For example, when gold repeatedly swung within the $1,900–$2,000 range, breakout chasers often got whipsawed, while those who trimmed positions within the range and kept a core holding were better able to stay calm. If prices really fall to key support, buying in stages is safer than betting everything at once. Whether this rally in gold is a genuine breakout or a false move will depend on whether it can hold above its previous high, whether volume contracts on a pullback, and how the dollar and real interest rates move. As for $BTC , whether it can reach a certain price will become clear before a particular level. The key isn’t guessing the exact price—it’s not mistaking concerns about the credibility of paper money for short-term noise.