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Positions have been flushed out, and valuations are reverting to the mean!



Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street institutions are collectively betting on a year-end rally in U.S. stocks:
Liquidity is flowing back, institutional portfolio rebalancing is wrapping up, and risk appetite is recovering. Historically, the odds have been favorable in the fourth quarter.

But they’re also warning:
Inflationary pressures could flare up again in Q1 next year—
Tariff pass-through, sticky rents, and a wage-price spiral are all laying the groundwork for trouble.

Whether it’s a rebound or a reversal, the market may be borrowing against the spring pullback!

Army’s outlook:
The real test isn’t in December’s candlesticks.
If inflation rebounds and rate-cut expectations retreat,
today’s crowded long positions will be a source of vulnerability.
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Comment 2
S2FBeliever
Mean reversion… mean reversion again.
RuinPreventer
How should we hedge the tail risk in Q1 next year—buy VIX or go straight to puts?