$NEAR

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The $NEAR recently established a local high at 3.638 and has since shifted into a bearish market structure, characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, breaking below previous short-term support levels and currently testing the 3.353 region after a sharp rejection.

The 1-hour timeframe shows a clear transition in momentum; after a strong impulsive bullish move peaking at 3.638, the price action has been dominated by consecutive red candles with notable selling volume, pushing the price below the short-term moving averages (MA5 and MA10), which are now acting as dynamic resistance overhead.

My plan is to adopt a "sell the rip" approach, waiting for a minor retracement toward the 3.40–3.45 area (previous support turned resistance) to enter a short position, targeting a move down toward the 3.265 swing low, while placing a strict stop-loss above the recent lower high to manage risk.

I predict that the immediate trend remains bearish as the MACD histogram is negative and the signal lines have crossed below the zero line, suggesting that the recent pump was a liquidity grab and the price is likely to revisit the 3.265 support level to test its validity.

🔴What Trade Plan I Follow and Why❓️

I am following a trend-continuation (short) plan because the momentum indicators (MACD) and the volume profile show that sellers are currently in control, and the price has failed to hold above the key psychological 3.50 level.

🔴When I Start My Trade ❓️

I will initiate the short trade when the price retests the 3.40 zone and prints a bearish rejection candle (such as a shooting star or bearish engulfing), confirming that the overhead resistance is holding.

Currently, we are seeing a "Bearish Belt Hold" or consecutive red marubozu-like candles indicating strong selling pressure, while the recent peak showed a potential "Evening Star" formation, which signaled the reversal.

🔴Which Trade Setup is Better ❓️

Given the current volatility and the clear downward channel, a standard Head and Shoulders or Trend Continuation (Flag) setup is applicable as during such strong impulsive sell-offs; a simple "Lower High" breakout setup is the most actionable.

Final Verdict: The market is in a corrective bearish phase; remain bearish below 3.45 and watch for a breakdown of 3.265 to confirm the next leg down, with a neutral bias until a clear reversal candle appears at support.